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Remylive
04-29-2013, 10:11 PM
Since my team resides in souther section division II that's what I'll post.

Disclaimer #1: "All I know is that I don't know"
Disclaimer #2: These so-called rankings are really observations. I have little to no knowledge of coaching changes, transfers, incoming freshman or news of debilitating injuries that might alter the information below. Most schools are one top newcomer away from being a Southern Section power. Just last year South Torrance had freshman track standout Kim Coscia come out for XC in 2012 only to be joined by the freshman Beadoin sisters and WHAM! They're one of the top teams in the section.

On to the rankings:
1) Simi Valley: Although they competed at the division one level last year, I have a hunch they will be division two this year and the pre-season favorites. There's two reasons for this. 1) Sarah Baxter and 2) Sarah Baxter! It always helps to start your scoring with 1-point, but Sarah Baxter also makes her teammates better. Her very presence in races has elevated her Pioneer teammates to new levels of confidence and performance. Add to that 10:47 3200m runner Charlotte Utash and they become tough. But they also boast a strong and experienced junior class that has been through the wars. Desirae Jones, Samantha Tetef, Olivia Roselini and Sarah Riggs have all hovered around 18:00 at Mt. Sac the last two years. This combination of talented front-runners and a fast, deep, pack make them the pre-season favorites in division two and hungry for their first state title after finishing 3rd last year in division one.

2) Serrano: Last season's 3rd place state team returns 6 of 7 and is one of the rare teams to reload with three sub-18:00 Mt. Sac athletes. Led by all-state performer Melissa Fairchild, they are a team that can do serious damage if they can get their #4-5 runners closer to the front. Last season they broke away from a pack of quality DII programs to get on the podium. A similar effort this year could see them move up another step.

3) Mira Costa: Every season it seems like this team will finally fall off the radar, but like clockwork they come off a solid track season and are back in the hunt again. 2013 will be no different. Despite losing two 11:00 3200m runners to graduation, the Mustangs return 5 of 7 led by sub-5 minute 1600m runner Abby Hong. The difference this Fall will be the continued development of junior Emma Lautanen and newcomer Alexis Johnson, who are both enjoying stellar track seasons. Led by veteran Coach Renee Williams-Smith (an alumnus of El Camino), they will be a force again come November.

4) South Torrance: I rank this team here because they may have the most upside of any program in division two. Last year they made Southern Section finals as a 3-woman team, the development or arrival of one or more runners could propel them to the very top. Kim Coscia and the Beaudoin twins have at a young age proven their mettle in Cross-Country AND on the track. Coach Brian Tokuda (El Camino alumni) has patiently brought them along well to this point and we may see yet another breakthrough come this Fall.

5) Moorpark: Many may find this team as a surprise pick at #5, but if you've studied this division closely you will know that Moorpark has quietly assembled a strong group of talented young runners led by 17:27 Mt. Sac performer Monika Gyalay. The Ip sisters and 2:17 800m runner Michelle Maignani will make them a dangerous team next XC season.

6) Claremont: The best team to not make the state meet last year, Claremont returns 6 of 7 with five sub-19 Mt. Sac performers led by veterans Megan Renken and Merin Arft. The strength of this team is it's tight pack running approach. If they can move through the field a little better than last year, they could make it all the way to the podium.

7) Redondo: The perennial track power is having yet another dynamite year. But you would be hard pressed to find another program that performs as consistently well in XC as the Sea Hawks. They have suffered from graduation losses the last two seasons and will be tested like never before in 2013. 800m standout Amber Gore will lead the charge next season, but it will be the development of new varsity athletes such as track star Anevay Hiehle and newcomer Breya Wynn that will decide how far this team can climb in the rankings. If there's anyone that can turn a track runner into a XC contender, it's Coach Bob Leetch (the 3rd of four El Camino alumni guiding teams in these rankings)

8) Woodbridge: On paper they don't look like a top ten team, but Coach George Varvas continually finds a way to get his teams competing at the championship meets. Senior veterans Madeline Bradford, Kylie Oefelein and 2:15 800m Janice Lane are the latest group to lead the Warriors to post-season glory.

9) Glendora: The best school to not make the Southern Section finals. They were on the outside looking in after a tough draw in the prelims. But they are back in 2013 with most of their 2012 team intact, led by junior Micaela Lamb. Undoubtedly this team will be hungry for redemption.

10) Colony: The numbers don't justify this ranking, but over the past 4-years Coach Jose Rangel has defied the odds and had his team in the hunt each season. I'm not betting against them this year either. Led by senior Katrina Fix (one of the most underrated runners in the section), their success will depend heavily on the development of their younger runners.

On the bubble: Ayala, Tesoro, Foothill, Canyon (Anaheim)

Individuals later. Maybe.

Keith Chann
04-30-2013, 09:11 AM
Southern Section Division 3 Unofficial Pre-preseason Rankings

I will steal Rene's disclaimers as well:

Disclaimer #1: "All I know is that I don't know"
Disclaimer #2: These so-called rankings are really observations. I have little to no knowledge of coaching changes, transfers, incoming freshman or news of debilitating injuries that might alter the information below. Most schools are one top newcomer away from being a Southern Section power. (it is not as common for freshmen boys to make huge impacts on their teams in the top 10 but look what happened last year!!)

Overview:Last year this division seemed like a 2 team race for almost all the season with St. John Bosco and Palos Verdes leading the charge. As November rolled around, Brea Olinda made a big jump up to challenge the front 2 and then Jurupa Hills and Paso Robles joined the party as podium contenders. When all was said and done, Palos Verdes dominated the rain course at Mt. SAC and walked away with the Southern Section Championship while St. John Bosco rebounded from a poor performance (relative to their own potential only) to win the California State Championship.

This year the team battle it looks more competitive up front than in recent years. Many of the top teams took heavy hit with graduation losses, SJB returns only 2 of its scoring 5 at the State meet while Palos Verdes loses 4 from its top 7. Brea Olinda and Jurupa Hills were both quite young last year as BO only loses 1 of its scoring 5 and JH returns all of the members of a team that placed 5th in Fresno.

Just a bit on times used for this: 1) I looked at data from CIF-SS prelims and finals as well as State and Mt. SAC Inv. 2) A conversion factor of 18 seconds was used to compare Woodward Park to Mt. SAC 3) A rain course conversion was applied by multiplying the CIF-SS finals time by 1.07 4) a best time was deduced from all the meets the athlete ran and used as a basis for time comparisons.

1) Brea Olinda – They were the first team to jump out of the pack and challenge the top 2 programs last season. This year they will be the hunted. Brea returns freshman star Tamagno who ran 15:17 at Mt SAC and 15:34 at Woodward Park. Those times, along with his amazing track season (4:11 and 9:18 so far) make him one of the favorites for the individual crown. Teammates Koryta is also under 15:30 plus 2 more under 16:00. Normal progression should have this team get all its scorers under 16:00.
2) Jurupa Hills – An extremely young but well coached bunch last season, the Spartans were definitely the surprise of the division. Not only did they make the State Championship but finished 5th without a senior on the team! This year they return knowing what it takes to make the podium and are looking for the Championship. They are led by juniors-to-be Michael Teran (2nd at SS finals last year), Brittan Reed and Devon Reed. All 3 have run 9:42 or better this season in the 3200 as sophomores. Jurupa Hills also returns 3 others under 16:30 and 2 more under 17:00 to perhaps have the best depth in the division.
3) St. John Bosco – After finishing 2nd and 1st in the last 2 years, SJB looks to continue its time on the podium. They return 2 runners under 15:50 and then 2 more under 16:10 with their fifth returner at 16:35. It is not too much of a stretch to seen this squad return to the top spot once Coach McIntosh gets his boys running. They almost always get an impact freshman or two and definitely have championship experience.
4) Palos Verdes – The Southern Section champions from 2012 return 4 runners from last year’s team. Celestin, Irish and Robinson are all under 15:50 but the times fall off from there. Finding that 4th and 5th scorer will determine the fate of this group. Coach Brian Shapiro does a great job of developing the next generation and will find a way to have a couple of boys step up to compete at the necessary level.
5) San Marcos – This squad made the SS finals last year, finishing only 27 points out of advancing to the State Championship. They return 2 under 16:00 (Ryan Sorensen, 15:47, and Eric Salas, 15:57) plus 3 more at 16:46 or better. This will be a senior heavy team that is looking to go out with a trip to Fresno.
6) Cathedral – Another team in the group of 5 that missed the state meet by 50 points or less. With Ruiz (15:41), Neveraz (15:52) and Munoz (15:53) they return 3 under 16:00 but not another runner under 17:00. Finding quality back-up to support the front runners will be crucial in ensuring a trip to Fresno in late November.
7) Bonita – After advancing to Sectional Finals last year Bonita will be looking for more in 2013. They return all 7 athletes from the Finals team with 1 under 16:00 (Nobbs, 15:34) and 5 more under 17:00! There is a large gap between Nobbs and the #2 (15:34 – 16:30) but the depth is there to keep them in the hunt for a berth to State.
8) Oak Park – A very consistent program that went to the State Championships last season. Led by Sahm Bazargan at 15:20, the team returns only 3 from the squad that finished 4th in Fresno. Three more runners are under 17:00 but none of them are under 16:30. They group will need to step up and find some back end scorers to return to Fresno but Bazargan will be one of the early favorites for an individual title.
9) Paso Robles – The team loses 4 of the top 6 that ran at State last year but the team is not empty. Two runners are under 16:05 with a third under 16:30, however, they will need to find another 2 scorers to remain a ranked team. Another shot at Finals is certainly possible but significant improvements from the back-end scorers will be necessary to get the Fresno again.
10) San Luis Obisbo – After missing a spot at Finals last season by one place, they will be hungry to make the next step. Nobody returns under 16:10 but there are 3 under 16:50. As is the case with the 2 in front of them , this squad needs to sure up its #4 and #5 to stay ahead of the pack chasing the top 10.

Doug Soles
04-30-2013, 11:54 AM
Rene,

I still think mine were more accurate... ;)

Doug

Rich Gonzalez
04-30-2013, 12:10 PM
Awesome stuff. Will be adding these with a mainpage link this week and add to them as time goes along from there.

Thanks Rene, Keith and Doug!

Rich

Keith Chann
04-30-2013, 12:14 PM
Looking at how I did with last year's rankings:
1) St John Bosco – finished as State Champion
2) Palos Verdes – Finished 2nd at State after winning SS Championship
3) Buena Park – missed SS Finals but had #1 runner transfer out.
4) West Torrance – Moved to Div 2
5) South Pasadena – missed SS Finals by 1 spot
6) Paso Robles – Finished 5th in SS and 10th at State
7) Oak Park – Finished 4th at State and 7th at SS Finals
8) Cathedral – Finiished 9th at SS Finals
9) Laguna Hills – Finished 11th at SS Finals
10) Brea Olinda – Finished 3rd at State and 2nd at SS Finals. Had super frosh join the team.

Definitely some misses there. A few were accurate but some major oversights. Most notably Jurupa Hills comes from nowhere to make State and finish 5th! In my own league and I completely missed that one.

Jeremy Mattern
04-30-2013, 08:04 PM
Rene,
There's a team called Saugus that you may want to consider editing into your rankings. They have won one or two consecutive State titles. I don't think they have experienced a coaching change, so I'm sure they will be decent in the fall. Look them up. You'll be impressed.

Rich Gonzalez
04-30-2013, 08:06 PM
Rene,
There's a team called Saugus that you may want to consider editing into your rankings. They have won one or two consecutive State titles. I don't they have experienced a coaching change, so I'm sure they will be decent in the fall. Look them up. You'll be impressed.

LOL. Great post!

Jeremy Mattern
04-30-2013, 08:14 PM
Keith,
Thanks for the thoughtful analysis. Great stuff! I would put SJB and PV ahead of us, as both have strong returners and a tradition of success at Woodward. Jurupa Hills should be hungry for a podium finish. As your last post made clear, one runner can make a major impact on a program, and that whole summer training thing seems to always sway the rankings.

cush
04-30-2013, 08:50 PM
isn't it still track season?

jeremy, shouldn't you be scouring century league heat sheets or looking for garret corcoran's "kryptonite?"

rene, don't you have twins to tend to? must be sleep deprivation that had him overlook saugus. or maybe they're moving to d3???

Keith Chann
05-01-2013, 07:33 AM
or maybe they're moving to d3???

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!

JStepp
05-01-2013, 08:28 AM
Saugus is getting their own division next year, along with Yucca. The logic from CIF is, that Saugus wins too much & Yucca never wins, so lets just give them their own spot. That way Saugus can continue to win and Yucca will continue to lose! Makes sense to me.

Remylive
05-01-2013, 08:45 AM
Saugus is getting their own division next year, along with Yucca. The logic from CIF is, that Saugus wins too much & Yucca never wins, so lets just give them their own spot. That way Saugus can continue to win and Yucca will continue to lose! Makes sense to me.
That must be that 6th division you've been fighting for in XC.

Rich Gonzalez
05-01-2013, 09:24 AM
That must be that 6th division you've been fighting for in XC.

Yucca's going in the 86th Division. :rolleyes:

Keith Chann
05-01-2013, 11:33 AM
Word is that there might be Division 1 Rankings coming early next week.

Anyone want to work on Division 4 or 5 (George Ramos??)

Jeremy Mattern
05-01-2013, 12:01 PM
isn't it still track season?

jeremy, shouldn't you be scouring century league heat sheets or looking for garret corcoran's "kryptonite?"

rene, don't you have twins to tend to? must be sleep deprivation that had him overlook saugus. or maybe they're moving to d3???

Century League heat sheets? Who needs 'em? Tamagno is running the first and last legs of the 4 x 100, so we'll definitely kick off the meet in convincing fashion. No need for quotation marks around kryptonite. My recent spelunking expedition to Krypton provided the real deal. Brea runners won't be the only dangerous element on the track tomorrow evening! - A distance runner who references comic book mythology. Do I get some sort of geek of the year award?

George Ramos
05-02-2013, 05:46 AM
Word is that there might be Division 1 Rankings coming early next week.

Anyone want to work on Division 4 or 5 (George Ramos??)

I can do D5, but if I don't get some grading done soon, I won't have a school to coach at ...

Tony DiMarco
05-02-2013, 10:32 PM
Yes there is life again on the boards!!! My wife will be soooo upset! I did this a while back so I thought I would put it up here for everyone to check out. I used Mt. Sac Invite and CIF prelim times for all returners next year in D1 boys and this is what I got for the top 16 teams (I did a mock race with a ton of teams and then got that down to 16 and then rescored with only the 16 teams).

Points and team times of returners.
1 Arcadia 55 76:44 (lots of questions need to be answered to what the defending champs will look like in 2013)
2 Long Beach Poly 99 77:57 (Poly returns ALL 7 from their State team WOW!)
3 Dana Hills 113 78:14 (Always a power especially with top frosh a year older)
4 Crescenta Valley 196 79:51 (Solid group that will have their work cut out for them if they want to get on the podium)
5 California 217 80:24 (if they get a better coach... well maybe they might get on the podium...)
6 Simi Valley 220 80:24 (took a beating on the rain course this year but a state meet team in 2013?)
7 Warren 223 80:23 (Solid program looking to make the state meet)
8 Burbank 225 80:37 (2 points from the state meet.... but could finish as high as 5th)
9 Vista Murrieta 226 80:16 (will be hurting without their top two but soooo deep that they could be fighting for a podium spot)
10 Yucaipa 240 80:48 (always a solid program year in and year out)
11 Great Oak 256 81:07 (frosh has emerged to go with the deepest program in the state.... Doubt they will finish this low when all said and done)
12 El Toro 263 81:10 (what will happen without one of greatest coaches in the states history leading the way?)
13 Corona 279 81:28 (pretty much a lock to make finals year in and year out)
14 Walnut 299 81:44 (up and coming program that might suprise some people)
15 Roosevelt 320 82:00 (loses top runner but good group coming back)
16 Rancho Cucamonga 322 82:30 (continues to graduate top runners yet... always a threat!)

Keith Chann
05-03-2013, 07:10 AM
2013 Girls Southern Section Division 3 Pre-preseason Unofficial Rankings

Disclaimers: See my Boys rankings above. No wagering!!

Girls are different. Outstanding freshmen regularly place in the top 10 at State and make huge impacts on their teams year in and year out. That being said here are my rankings for the upcoming season.
1) Bonita – There may not be a stronger favorite in the state to repeat as champion. Not only did Bonita win the State title in 2012 but they return 6 of that 7. Of course losing Marissa Scott is a big loss, they still return 3 girls under 19:00 at Woodward Park( Kailyn Scott, 18:49, Kelsey Creese, 18:52, and Makenzie Landa, 18:53) and 4 under 19:00 (Jordin Prado, 18:49) at Mt. SAC.
2) Palos Verdes - PV is on par with Bonita through 3 runners but falls off a little with the 4th and 5th scorers. They have a great shot to return to the podium but teams 2-4 are very close. Cassidy Webber ran terrific at SS-Finals (5th) and State (7th) but keeping a spot in the top 4 may come down to developing a solid 5th girl.
3) Northwood – Bethan Knight is the favorite for the individual State championship after finishing 2nd in both SS Finals (16:26!!) and State (17:49) last season and would love to have her teammates make the podium as well. She has plenty of help as Ashley Larson (18:39) and Natsuki Eguchi (18:55) have both been under 19:00 at Mt. SAC plus 2 more girls were just over 20:00 at Woodward park.
4) Laguna Hills – This squad could easily be #2. They return 2 girls under 19:00 (Marissa Bartello, 18:38, and Brianna Bartello, 18:48) plus 3 more girls under 19:30. If the front 2 can battle the top 2 from PV it will be really close for a podium finish!
5) Granite Hills - Katie Deimling (17:06 on the rain course!) leads this group that also returns 2 more girls under 19:20. Having nobody else under 20:10 hurts a bit but still should keep GH in the hunt for a spot on the line in Fresno.
6) Oak Park – Returns 6 runners from state qualifying team in 2012 but none under 19:35. They do however have all 6 runners better than 20:20! Should be a very solid team but lack of a true #1 front-runner will hurt their chances of moving too far up. Look for them in Fresno again in November.
7) Esperanza – Led by Danielle Oden at 18:55, Esperanza has 3 more girls at or under 20:00 at Mt. SAC. No real up-front runner but solid depth with 6 returning from a SS Finals team. On the bubble for the trip north Thanksgiving weekend.
8) Corona del Mar – The traditional power seemed a little down last year by only making SS Finals! That is until you notice that they did it almost entirely with a frosh-soph group. They return 3 frosh-soph under 19:47 plus 3 more under 21:00. This group could improve significantly if they can channel the CdM girls of the past. Look out for the future!
9) Mater Dei – Only 2 girls under 20:00 but 5 under 20:30! Their depth may push them up a few spots but the lack of up-front potential will limit the rise.
10) Bolsa Grande – Jeanette Zambrano (18:38) leads a group that figures to return to SS Finals this year with 6 girls back that ran at either prelims or finals in 2012. Unfortunately there is no one under 20:00 after Zambrano so the back group will need to improve to keep in the top 10 for long.

Honorable mention – La Canada, Rubidoux, San Luis Obispo.

JStepp
05-03-2013, 07:19 AM
2013 Girls Southern Section Division 3 Pre-preseason Unofficial Rankings

Disclaimers: See my Boys rankings above. No wagering!!



Too late Keith. I've already wagered our meth lab in Vegas. Come on Baby! Daddy needs a new pressure cooker for the meth!

Rich Gonzalez
05-03-2013, 08:39 AM
too late keith. I've already wagered our meth lab in vegas. Come on baby! Daddy needs a new pressure cooker for the meth!

rofl!!

Jeremy Mattern
05-03-2013, 10:30 AM
Hi Tony,
I'm no expert on Division 1 (or anything in life for that matter), but I've got to believe that Trabuco will factor into CIF-SS Top 10. I know they lose some solid runners, but they always reload through depth and disciplined training. Thoughts?

Rich Gonzalez
05-03-2013, 10:48 AM
Hi Tony,
I'm no expert on Division 1 (or anything in life for that matter), but I've got to believe that Trabuco will factor into CIF-SS Top 10. I know they lose some solid runners, but they always reload through depth and disciplined training. Thoughts?

If I may offer up two cents here as well... Trabuco Hills always has great summers, but I can't recall any time over the last decade where the reloading task is as daunting as in 2013. Since extensive performance data has proven to be the best indicator when it comes creating rankings, it can fairly be stated that there are 10 Division I teams projecting ahead of Trabuco Hills to start the season.

Doesn't mean things will not change come the start of the season, but not stating that it necessarily will either. The data isn't supporting it right now, but any potential new runners from within the school, potential transfers, potential impact freshmen can always help change that. Can't think of any time ever that the data was truly bucked/over-ridden; it has always been a case of new additions that helped to eventually update some rankings.

That said, I'm not the one that's going to bet against them (am just telling you what the data on the current roster shows).

Doug Soles
05-03-2013, 11:32 AM
Rich,

Didn't Murrieta Valley's 2007 team surprise and dominate at Woodbridge despite returning just a bunch of JV kids from the year before? Can't remember for sure, but this seems like a team that bucked the data going into the season.

Doug

Rich Gonzalez
05-03-2013, 11:56 AM
Rich,

Didn't Murrieta Valley's 2007 team surprise and dominate at Woodbridge despite returning just a bunch of JV kids from the year before? Can't remember for sure, but this seems like a team that bucked the data going into the season.

Doug

My best hunch is that your data was bad. I think they returned four of their top 7 from the year before and three of their top four from non-varsity also were non-seniors. Hence, I don't think it was "a bunch of JV kids" but rather a fair share of varsity kids and some JV kids. That said, JV kids have data too. I've often ranked teams that lost almost their entire varsity (6 of 7) from the year before, because the data on their JV team warranted it.

Tony DiMarco
05-03-2013, 09:58 PM
See this is the problem with rankings... ;)

I took the gut and hunch and this team has done this in the past out of my rankings... They were based 100% on Mt. Sac Invite and CIF Prelims... These are the teams that made the cut. Now of course I'm not Rich nor would I ever want to be him :p but trust me when I say this... I will never assume a team that has had the amount of success that Liam has had won't reload! Trabuco Hills along with a few others are on my list of teams to watch for come September just like an injury or transfer can change my list above... look at Arcadia this year with their freshman transfer.. I had Vista winning it all until he came and ruined it :cool: What about that California team... I hear Rich didn't even think they were a top 50 team coming in... You just never know what's going to happen until it happens. That said... I think Liam has his work cut out for him this coming season which I'm sure like any coach makes things exciting!

Martin Pennell
05-04-2013, 11:00 AM
For compiling data, I would weigh current track season marks equal to or higher than previous XC results. Based on that I'm backing Brea for the title, they were very good in XC last year, since then, they've gotten much better.

cush
05-04-2013, 12:45 PM
no pressure jeremy--just don't screw it up...

Torres BHDP
05-06-2013, 01:08 PM
Here’s a few observations on the Div IV boys situation (SS), for consumption by all, from the unwashed masses on the lower rungs of our XC society…

Quote Rene’s now standard disclaimer and stealing a page from his (rankings) book, playing fast-and-loose with Mt. SAC times and what I could find from this season’s track results…

1. Don Bosco Tech: Sorry Sal, but you guys have the target again. Returning the fastest Mt. SAC accumulation at 83:06 and led by Ruben Dominguez, now seriously coming into his own with a 4:23/9:27 combo, the Techmen are easily the top team in the division going in. Joshua Chavez (2:00/4:31) is improving rapidly to support as #2 and if Coach Perez can develop a strong 5th, it will be very hard for anyone to catch this team.

2. Laguna Beach: This team showed flashes of brilliance last season, and return an 84:41 with 6 guys sub-5 and 6 sub-11, 2 of those sub-10, in track (Barton and Kaprowski). A hungry group that finished just 10 points out of state qualifying and looks like they have the best depth in the division. Youngster heavy last year, this team is now battle tested and looking to make a statement.

3/4/5. Harvard-Westlake/Big Bear/Crean Lutheran South: Too close to call here so I’m gonna punk out and lump ‘em all together. Mt. SAC returning times 84:14/84:17/84:37 respectively… H-W wins out on depth but Big Bear and C-L have the big-time front-runners picking up guaranteed single digits. The best sophs in the division Caleb Webb (BB) and Sean Pino (CLS) will need to see their coaches develop some #4-5 strength (which both coaches have done EXTREMELY well over past years, might I add) to challenge the Tech in the postseason. Another talented soph Ben Weissenbach and junior David Manahan will be trying to lead Coach Sharpe’s group back into the pack mentality that they had so much success with a couple years back.

6. JSerra: This team has the biggest upside in the division, with a core of underclassmen a year ago and led by junior Nic Fracassi (16:15 Mt. SAC). Returning an 85:02 and spending their time battling the brutal Trinity league in track, this team (similar to Laguna Beach) should now have the experience to surge into a state qualifying spot after finishing 11th at finals a year ago.

7. Morro Bay: Could be the biggest surprise this season. Returning only an 86:06 and finishing 12th at finals last year, but coming off what seems to be an excellent track season, the skull and crossbones has been a dangerous team for many, many years. With 5 sub-5 runners and 3 sub-11’s, this could be the biggest mover if soph Austin Lay (2:03/4:30/9:53) and frosh Andrew Stafford (4:36/10:19) continue to improve.

8. Fillmore: I should have my head examined ranking these guys this low… The reigning state champs return an 86:37 team time after graduating 6 of their top 7 (and many of their top 14). Track season sees them with 4 sub-5 and 3 sub-11 but we all know that XC is all about guts, and if Coach Tafoya can get these guys to follow last year’s model, the division will be on notice.

9. San Marino: Coach Mundo has a sleeper in this year’s team. Returning a very fine 85:27, a team that snuck into Finals last year will be gunning for a State spot and will be catching teams unawares if not careful. Current soph George Mundo leads his father’s team this season.

10. Santa Ynez: On the strength of this track season alone (5 sub-5 runners) this team takes the last spot. A humble 88:01 Mt. SAC returner’s time doesn’t do justice to the improvement this team has shown. Besides the fact they seem to come out of NOWHERE each year to secure a finals spot and challenge for a state berth, it would be a mistake to count this team out.

Those're my 2 cents into the pond, we'll see if there're any ripples...

xcbreak
05-08-2013, 12:17 PM
Nice write up on D-4, but how do you not have Salesian at 1st or 2nd with 6 kids under 5 and 6 under 10:40. That is a pretty solid core group of kids. I am currently working on all my spread sheets for next year, when I am done I will post them as well.

Doug Soles
05-09-2013, 06:47 AM
I would say the meet Buchanan's girls just had puts them top 3 in the state in next year's XC projections:

Buchanan 2013 XC Grade
Hannah Benoit 11 4:56 11:04
Maddy Nickel 12 5:03 2:16
Josie Fry 11 2:23 11:19
Miranda Kennedy 11 5:13 11:26
Justice Hinojosa 12 5:30 11:55
Katherine Carter 10 2:29
Ashley Frost 10 5:36 2:34
Keiran Devere 10 5:40 12:46
Lexi Kincade 11 5:42 12:37

Should Challenge for Top 3 D1 at State (in no particular order):
Buchanan
St. Francis
Capo Valley
Simi Valley (unsure on division)

D1 girls will be very competitive!

Doug

Torres BHDP
05-09-2013, 09:26 AM
Nice write up on D-4, but how do you not have Salesian at 1st or 2nd with 6 kids under 5 and 6 under 10:40. That is a pretty solid core group of kids. I am currently working on all my spread sheets for next year, when I am done I will post them as well.

I don't know how I would rank my own team simply because too many emotions play in. Ranking are supposed to be objective and I know I couldn't be objective when it comes to my boys... That why I decided to "pull a Rene" while doing the write-up.

With that said, I'm very much looking forward to you're thoughts on the division, Scott!

George Ramos
05-13-2013, 09:08 PM
I always start the season by taking the seniors out of the previous season's CIF Finals and filling the holes made thereby with non-seniors from CIF Prelims and Mt. SAC; I also use an athlete's best time from those three races. For this season, though, I just used Finals, since I didn't bother with comparisons between the rain course and the traditional course.

Basically, I just want to see who's who to start the season; I make no attempt to predict where teams will finish the season.

D5 GIRLS
1. Xavier Prep
2. Flintridge Prep
3. Lancaster Desert Christian
4. Santa Maria St. Joseph
5. Thacher
6. Woodcrest Christian
7. Crossroads
8. Pomona Catholic
9. Linfield Christian
10. Vistamar

D5 BOYS
1. Flintridge Prep
2. Thacher
3. St. Margarets
4. Xavier Prep
5. Chadwick
6. Woodcrest Christian
7. Lancaster Desert Christian
8. Santa Maria St. Joseph
9. Ontario Christian
10. Sage Hill

Doug Soles
05-14-2013, 08:08 AM
My best hunch is that your data was bad. I think they returned four of their top 7 from the year before and three of their top four from non-varsity also were non-seniors. Hence, I don't think it was "a bunch of JV kids" but rather a fair share of varsity kids and some JV kids. That said, JV kids have data too. I've often ranked teams that lost almost their entire varsity (6 of 7) from the year before, because the data on their JV team warranted it.

Thanks Rich, for the insight. :)

I couldn't remember with that group...

Anyone have an opinion to who the "biggest surprise" team is for California XC in a season (nobody saw them coming)?

Nice to see the message board ticking up again! :)

Doug

Keith Chann
05-14-2013, 11:04 AM
Anyone have an opinion to who the "biggest surprise" team is for California XC in a season (nobody saw them coming)?

Doug

2012 Jurupa Hills! 3rd year school goes to State in D3 and gets 5th. Even in my own league and I did not see that coming until they were killing us with 5 guys in front of my 3rd!!

Mark Gardner
05-17-2013, 10:59 PM
Division I Boys 3200 - Underclassmen from 2013
Just to throw a curveball out there, I became impressed with athletic.net's extended lists this past season. In looking at the Division I 3200 meters, here is what you come out with, based on the athletic.net website. Arcadia is absent (Surprised we haven't started a discussion on Arcadia's distance runners this past Spring yet?!?!?!). We also realize that there will be marks missing due to never being reported from dual meets.
Adjusted to include Crescenta Valley's boys.

Dana Hills - 70
Warren - 90
California - 119
LB Poly - 136
Great Oak - 190
Burbank - 225
Burroughs (Burbank) - 236
Yucaipa - 266
El Toro - 274
Roosevelt - 290
Fountain Valley - 293
Corona - 293
Crescenta Valley - 297
Edison - 298
Santa Monica - 302
Vista Murrieta - 306
ML King - 330
on the fence: El Rancho, Ventura, Marina, Paramount

xcbreak
05-20-2013, 06:45 AM
Here’s a few observations on the Div IV boys situation (SS), for consumption by all, from the unwashed masses on the lower rungs of our XC society…

Quote Rene’s now standard disclaimer and stealing a page from his (rankings) book, playing fast-and-loose with Mt. SAC times and what I could find from this season’s track results…

1. Don Bosco Tech: Sorry Sal, but you guys have the target again. Returning the fastest Mt. SAC accumulation at 83:06 and led by Ruben Dominguez, now seriously coming into his own with a 4:23/9:27 combo, the Techmen are easily the top team in the division going in. Joshua Chavez (2:00/4:31) is improving rapidly to support as #2 and if Coach Perez can develop a strong 5th, it will be very hard for anyone to catch this team.

2. Laguna Beach: This team showed flashes of brilliance last season, and return an 84:41 with 6 guys sub-5 and 6 sub-11, 2 of those sub-10, in track (Barton and Kaprowski). A hungry group that finished just 10 points out of state qualifying and looks like they have the best depth in the division. Youngster heavy last year, this team is now battle tested and looking to make a statement.

3/4/5. Harvard-Westlake/Big Bear/Crean Lutheran South: Too close to call here so I’m gonna punk out and lump ‘em all together. Mt. SAC returning times 84:14/84:17/84:37 respectively… H-W wins out on depth but Big Bear and C-L have the big-time front-runners picking up guaranteed single digits. The best sophs in the division Caleb Webb (BB) and Sean Pino (CLS) will need to see their coaches develop some #4-5 strength (which both coaches have done EXTREMELY well over past years, might I add) to challenge the Tech in the postseason. Another talented soph Ben Weissenbach and junior David Manahan will be trying to lead Coach Sharpe’s group back into the pack mentality that they had so much success with a couple years back.

6. JSerra: This team has the biggest upside in the division, with a core of underclassmen a year ago and led by junior Nic Fracassi (16:15 Mt. SAC). Returning an 85:02 and spending their time battling the brutal Trinity league in track, this team (similar to Laguna Beach) should now have the experience to surge into a state qualifying spot after finishing 11th at finals a year ago.

7. Morro Bay: Could be the biggest surprise this season. Returning only an 86:06 and finishing 12th at finals last year, but coming off what seems to be an excellent track season, the skull and crossbones has been a dangerous team for many, many years. With 5 sub-5 runners and 3 sub-11’s, this could be the biggest mover if soph Austin Lay (2:03/4:30/9:53) and frosh Andrew Stafford (4:36/10:19) continue to improve.

8. Fillmore: I should have my head examined ranking these guys this low… The reigning state champs return an 86:37 team time after graduating 6 of their top 7 (and many of their top 14). Track season sees them with 4 sub-5 and 3 sub-11 but we all know that XC is all about guts, and if Coach Tafoya can get these guys to follow last year’s model, the division will be on notice.

9. San Marino: Coach Mundo has a sleeper in this year’s team. Returning a very fine 85:27, a team that snuck into Finals last year will be gunning for a State spot and will be catching teams unawares if not careful. Current soph George Mundo leads his father’s team this season.

10. Santa Ynez: On the strength of this track season alone (5 sub-5 runners) this team takes the last spot. A humble 88:01 Mt. SAC returner’s time doesn’t do justice to the improvement this team has shown. Besides the fact they seem to come out of NOWHERE each year to secure a finals spot and challenge for a state berth, it would be a mistake to count this team out.

Those're my 2 cents into the pond, we'll see if there're any ripples...

Here his my 2 cents for Boys D-4. I based a lot of it off track times and I am sure I missed a lot.

1. Salesian Returns 7 sub 5 minutes 1600 runners and 6 sub 11:00 in the 3200 and a solid #1 Tomas Navarro 9:37 3200. They will be tough to beat this year.

2. Don Bosco Tech: Returns 7 sub 5 minutes 1600 runners and has a serious # 1 with Dominguez 4:23/9:27. Their season will come down to how their 4 and 5 run.

3. Big Bear : Returns 5 guys sub 5 minutes and 7 sub 11:00. With front runner Caleb Webb 4:18/9:20 at the helm, and a strong supporting cast look for this team to possible take it all

4. Harvard-Westlake: Returns 4 sub 5 minutes 1600 and 7 sub 11:00 in the 3200. Ben Weissenbach will lead them with 4:29/10:48. This team will be young and if they come into their own they will be tough to beat.

5 Crean Lutheran South: Returns 6 guys sub 5 minutes and 7 sub 11:00. Sean Pino will lead this group and will be a solid #1. I would not discount this team after a great run at state last year.

6. Laguna Beach: Returns 10 guys sub 5 minutes and 7 sub 11:00. With no front runner like the top five teams they will rely on three sub 10 guys from track (Barton, Rebollar and Kaprowski). This will still be a young team and if the 4/5 guys develop they will run with anyone.

7. Morro Bay: Returns 5 guys sub 5 minutes and 2 sub 11:00 Austin Lay will lead this team and ran a 4:25 in the 1600. This will be a really young team that will only get better as the season rolls on.


8. Fillmore: They return 5 guys sub 11:00 in the 3200. These guys know what it takes to win, but I do think this will be a rebuilding year. Don’t be surprised if they are at the state meet again next year.

9. Santa Ynez: Returns 6 guys sub 5 minutes but only 1 sub 11:00. They will need someone to step up and be their #1. This will be a really young team. Look for them to improve as the year progresses.

10. San Marino: Returns 5 guys sub 5 minutes and 2 sub 11:00. Just like Santa Ynez do not have a front runner yet. To move past finals they will have to develop one.

Also Costa Mesa and J Serra has a chance to break into the top 10, just not sure if they will have the depth this year.

Coach Razor
05-20-2013, 07:44 AM
All analysis is greatly appreciated everyone. Don't we all start each season thinking we can go the distance ;)
But as we know, each season has its challenges whether injury or otherwise. Anyways, I do love the competitiveness of our D4. So much fun each year. I'm considering pitching in and posting a girls analysis, though I likely won't be finished with my research until Wednesday. But I'm not calling dibs or anything.

yesstiles
05-20-2013, 09:30 AM
Nice analysis Scott! It's always nice to see some D-4 talk on here. I'm sure jealous looking at your f/s squad. Great job with them this past year. I need to figure something out up here because I had 0 freshman run track for me this season, and only 2 freshman last xc season. Our size and demographics are changing so rapidly here in Big Bear, it's really gonna be a chore trying to keep up. We only have 13 boys returning next season but have a nice core of current sophomores. Some great programs out there keeping us on our toes!

jonathan stiles
head coach
big bear hs

Martin Pennell
05-20-2013, 11:30 PM
Dana Hills - 70
Warren - 90
California - 119
LB Poly - 136
Great Oak - 190
Burbank - 225
Burroughs (Burbank) - 236
Yucaipa - 266
El Toro - 274
Roosevelt - 290
Fountain Valley - 293
Corona - 293
Crescenta Valley - 297
Edison - 298
Santa Monica - 302
Vista Murrieta - 306
ML King - 330
on the fence: El Rancho, Ventura, Marina, Paramount

Jeez Gardner are we gonna battle again? It seems like both our Boys and Girls for the last 3 years have been within a few points of each other.

Mark Gardner
05-21-2013, 07:26 AM
Looks like you have more upside.....

Martin Pennell
05-21-2013, 10:38 AM
Looks like you have more upside.....

We have a lot of "swing" kids this year in the form of F/S kids really looking to step up. With that though there are always question marks as they haven't been proven at the varsity level yet. We got a big boost this season with David Abraham who went from 18:53 as a soph to 4:20/9:23 as a jr. He has inspired a lot of the younger guys into believing what can be done with dedication. A lot our 17 and 18 minute guys are saying, "if he did it, so can I". It's much easier said than done but at least the precedent is there and they got to witness it first hand.

Keith Chann
05-22-2013, 06:48 AM
We have a lot of "swing" kids this year in the form of F/S kids really looking to step up. With that though there are always question marks as they haven't been proven at the varsity level yet. We got a big boost this season with David Abraham who went from 18:53 as a soph to 4:20/9:23 as a jr. He has inspired a lot of the younger guys into believing what can be done with dedication. A lot our 17 and 18 minute guys are saying, "if he did it, so can I". It's much easier said than done but at least the precedent is there and they got to witness it first hand.

Good luck with that Martin. One of the best things that can happen to a program is to have a runner step up and show that it can be done. One of the things that made the Murrieta Valley program great under Steve Chavez was that every year a few kids would step up and fill the varsity gaps because that was what was expected. If your team has a culture of kids automatically doing that, and not having everyone looking around for who it will be, then you will really see a program continue to rise. Seems that you are building that mentality now. Sorry Mark! Your time is coming; this is the year that you will transition into that as well.

Mark Gardner
05-22-2013, 07:03 AM
Well according to online sources, Corona's boys are a lock for the CIF Finals again. So, I'm under the assumption that we do not need to compete until November 23rd. Maybe, we'll get this peaking thing correct this time around?!?!:confused:

Martin Pennell
05-22-2013, 01:31 PM
Well according to online sources, Corona's boys are a lock for the CIF Finals again. So, I'm under the assumption that we do not need to compete until November 23rd. Maybe, we'll get this peaking thing correct this time around?!?!:confused:

You're partially correct. I was told that a new CIF rule states that "All teams requesting a "bye" into CIF Finals must first win the Hi-Desert Classic.

JStepp
05-22-2013, 05:50 PM
You're partially correct. I was told that a new CIF rule states that "All teams requesting a "bye" into CIF Finals must first win the Hi-Desert Classic.

HEY NOW! Not everyone gets an invite to the HDC. You and your team have to prove yourself worthy of such a prestigious honor. And by that I mean, your check has to clear. Still waiting on Gardner's check to clear from 16 years ago when he was at Beaumont.

Coach Razor
05-24-2013, 08:32 AM
Ok here's my humble stab at D4 Girls SS. This is the area where I spend my time and feel at least somewhat comfortable. My first time doin this for public consumption, hope I contribute in a meaningful way. I'll also apologize in advance for any name mis-spellings.

Also, I too will steal & quote Rene’s now standard disclaimers:
"Disclaimer #1: "All I know is that I don't know"
Disclaimer #2: These so-called rankings are really observations. I have little to no knowledge of coaching changes, transfers, incoming freshman or news of debilitating injuries that might alter the information below. Most schools are one top newcomer away from being a Southern Section power. Just last year South Torrance had freshman track standout Kim Coscia come out for XC in 2012 only to be joined by the freshman Beadoin sisters and WHAM! They're one of the top teams in the section."

And I'll also steal a page from his (rankings) playbook, playing fast-and-loose with Mt. SAC times and gleaning what I could find from this season’s track results…

1. JSerra: I'm one of those that believes the champs are the champs until they show otherwise. Marty has consistently guided his ladies to the top and they deserve the nod. They return 5 of their best runners with Ashley Geisler & Brooke Kunzelman leading the way with Mt SAC times of 18:25 and 18:49 last year.

2. Laguna Beach: Steve's ladies have to be the scariest bunch and biggest threat to unseat JSerra with the way the have been tearing it up this track season lead by Janie Crawford's 5:09 they have 5 girls under 5:25! Though they return just three girls with Mt SAC times a bit under 20min, I am predicting huge improvement if they can get the hill work in to convert those great track times into Mt SAC success. They would also seem to have the depth to make it through the season with quality times 8 runners deep.

3. La Reina: Consistently one of the best in D4, they return solid runners Ariana Brajkovich and Alyssa Frank with times of 18:54 & 18:56 at Mt. SAC, always a great start. In addition to those two, it looks like they have three more girls under 6min to round out the top group.

4. Crean Lutheran: I have to admit that the data may not seem to entirely support them being this high, but they return 4 strong runners and have put up some fine marks this track season... and showing they may have found their 5th... Call it a gut feeling. Lauren Maurer is a sure threat to be top 3 individually with a returning Mt SAC time of 18:09.

5. San Marino: With Alissa Barraza and Sarah Linton up front, they have a formidable top four returning from last year... And with sophomore to be Olivia Harrigan posting 5:33 & 11:39 this year, it looks like they have a runner that has stepped up to be the number 3 or 4 on the team giving them a great top 5. This is a team that could easily move up, and I went back & forth between them and Crean Lutheran for 4th & 5th on this list.

6. Mayfield: They lose a lot of seniors, but return 3 solid runners in Alyssa Rivas, Marissa Sanchez & Sophie Fortner. Mayfield has been consistantly a top team since 2008 and one shouldn't be surprised by more of the same.

7. El Segundo: Retuning most of their runners from last year they have the makings of a good pack with 6 runners from 5:42 to 5:55 in track this year.

8. Filmore: They return 5 of their top runners and have Kiani Hope who's been 12:25 this track season along with Alexis Tafoya with times of 5:53/12:28 and who also ran so well on the flat rain course at CIF Finals last year.

9. Oaks Christian: They have very fine junior Emma Flemming who was 18:50 at Mt. SAC last year, and Savanah Anderson 19:46. After that they have a few runners that have faired well in track that should fill out the top 5.

10. Templeton: Led by Veronica Russell and Dana Alpert with Mt. SAC times of 18:47 & 19:23 respectively they could easily jump up this list with continued improvement from Kecymar Osuna (12:15 in track) and the rest of their top 5.

Habadoo
05-24-2013, 10:39 AM
D4 CIF SS Rankings – I based my ranking looking at Mt. Sac Times, State times, and track times. I’m sure I’ve made some mistakes in my research…but here’s my 2 cents. I did not include my team. I’ll leave that for someone else to rank.

1. J SERRA
They are the 3 time defending State champions. They return 4 of the top 5 from last season; (Kunzelman, Geisler, Clifton, and Fracassi) 3 of which broke 20 minutes at Mt. Sac & State. 2 of which were under 19 at Mt. Sac.

2. HARVARD-WESTLAKE
Everyone returns! Lizzy Thomas has had a stellar track season breaking 5 minutes in the 1600, and under 11:00 in the 3200. Behind her, they have Dordi who ran 5:36 in the 1600 and 11:36 in the 3200. and 4-5 others under 13:00.

3. LA REINA
The top 3 return from last season where they finished 4th at State. Not sure what happened to Brajkovich during track, injured?? Robert always does a great job of retooling their team each year. With Frank & Brajkovich leading the charge, LA REINA will be a force.

4. CREAN LUTHERAN
A very young team with a great front runner. They continue to develop quality runners every year. If Mauer comes back strong from her track injury, this team could do some damage.

5. SAN MARINO
6 of the top 7 return. Looks like the #5 developed into a very solid runner throughout the track season, running a team best 11:39. They are probably under ranked right now because it looks like they have the potential of being a very good team. Watch out for San Marino!

6. MAYFIELD
They lose 4 of their top 7. A good quality 4 as well. They have a great coach who always produces results. Won't be surprised to see them have a great season again this season after finishing 3rd last season. They return a 19:38, 19:59, 20:29 from the State Meet.

7. TEMPLETON
They return all 7 runners, lead by Russell who's run 18:47, and Alpert who's run 19:23 on Mt. Sac.

8. PARACLETE
They lose 3 of their top 7, 2 of their top 3. They return 2 under 20 minutes at Mt. Sac.

9. NOTRE DAME
They only return 2 of the top 7 from 2012. #3 and #6. Elizabeth Coda should lead the team this season after running well in track. She ran 5:32 in the 1600, and 11:56 in the 3200. The other returner ran 2:43 and 5:55 on the track.

10. FILMORE – They lose 2 of the top 7. Lead by Kiani Hope, they definatly could be better than 10.

11. EL SEGUNDO

12. OAKS CHRISTIAN



Steve Lalim
Laguna Beach High School
Girls Track & Field Head Coach
Girls Cross Country Head Coach

Keith Chann
05-24-2013, 11:38 AM
Awesome to see so many coaches taking part in this!

So far we have Boys Division 1, Division 3, Division 4 and Division 5 rankings along with Girls rankings in Division 2, Division 3, Division 4 and Division 5.

Some of the best coaches in the section have weighed-in with their analysis and I have offered mine. We could still use Girls Division 1 and Boys Division 2 but the others are at least started. Enjoy the summer training and hopefully this will continue to evolve into a meaningful message board again.

Many thanks to those coaches out there who are contributing through the insight into their rankings and/or their analysis and thoughts. Let's keep this communication open.

Matt Holden
05-26-2013, 07:22 PM
I know Palisades girls team doesn't deserve a top 10 ranking but something tells me that the coaching there is fantastic, and they have a great crop to work with next year (although 2014 may be their best shot). Here are the returners

Woodward 2012 PR/ Name / grade / 2013 track times
17:15, Marissa Williams 10 - 10:37.33, 4:52.56, 2:17.30
19:47, Elizabeth Goodman 10 - 11:55.49, 5:34.82
19:48, Hannah Desilva 10 - 5:21.51
19:49 Kylie Rawn 11
20:01, Mackenzie Gray 11 - 5:28.94, 2:17.86
---- Reserve ----
20:06, Natelie Marsh 10 - 11:47.66, 5:29.12
Aileen Figueroa 9 - 12:09.48, 5:40.62
Maggie Todd 10 – 5:39.11
Emma Ulfvengoen 9 - 12:22.84, 5:42.98
Adams, Lulu 9 – 5:54.64
Madelynne Frick 9 – 5:58.81
22:16 Kate Frankel 11

Marisa Williams will probably score 2 points or so, and who knows what can be developed out of the 8 or so other girls currently in 19-20 shape below her. If only a few of them have big improvements, this could be the first dangerous team out of LACS in a long time.

Coach Razor
05-27-2013, 09:36 AM
To be honest, I'm not as familiar with the city section, but I would have to believe that based on the info you've provided that has to be pretty good. Hopefully some one on here knows the city section & can add some perspective.

Robby Cherry
06-06-2013, 12:41 PM
My Boy's CIF-SS D4 Rankings with scores.

1. Salesian 78
2. Harvard Westlake 126
3. JSerra 137
4. Don Bosco 153
5. Laguna Beach 158 -
6. Crean Lutheran 161
7. Morro Bay 183
8. Big Bear 185
9. Fillmore 186


State Rankings D4 - no scores
1. Salesian
2. Yreka
3. Harvard Westlake
4. Seaside
5. JSerra
6. Don Bosco
7. Laguna Beach
8. Crean Lutheran
9. Scott’s Valley
10. Morro Bay

xcbreak
06-07-2013, 08:13 AM
Good to see some more rankings for D-4, I was thinking about trying to rank with scoring but found it really difficult, how did you go about it.

Robby Cherry
06-07-2013, 11:13 AM
I only took XC results into account. So it isn't going to be the most accurate prediction out there. But basically I went through the results at CIF Finals and just counted the returning athletes and scored out the meet. If a team did not have five runners returning then I had to do a little bit of extrapolation based on how their 5, 6, and 7 runners ran last year. In most cases I estimated these runners to finish in the mid 50s. Here is a detailed account of my scoring if you are interested:

Big Bear 1, 27, 35, 60, 62 = 185 points
Crean Lutheran 2, 31, 32, 46, 50= 161 points
Don Bosco 3, 18, 25, 52, 55 = 153 points
Harvard Westlake 4, 14, 28, 29, 51 = 126 points
Salesian 5, 9, 10, 20, 34 = 78 points
Morro Bay 6, 37, 41, 49, 50 =183 points
Costa Mesa 7, 33 > 200 points
Santa Ynez 8, 38, 54, 65, 66 > 200points
Twenty Nine Palms 11,>200 points
JSerra 12, 13, 24, 39, 49 =137 points
Oaks Christian 15, >200 points
Fillmore 16, 30, 50?, 50? , 50? = 186 points
Laguna Beach 17, 19, 26, 40, 56= 158 points
Riverside Prep 21> 200 points
San Marino 22, 23, 43, 45, 57, =200 points
Crespi 36, 42, 44,…>200 points

Obviously these rankings are just a starting point and many of the teams listed here have an opportunity to move up.

xcbreak
06-14-2013, 09:11 AM
Nice analysis Scott! It's always nice to see some D-4 talk on here. I'm sure jealous looking at your f/s squad. Great job with them this past year. I need to figure something out up here because I had 0 freshman run track for me this season, and only 2 freshman last xc season. Our size and demographics are changing so rapidly here in Big Bear, it's really gonna be a chore trying to keep up. We only have 13 boys returning next season but have a nice core of current sophomores. Some great programs out there keeping us on our toes!

jonathan stiles
head coach
big bear hs

Hey Jonathan I am taking 5 or 6 guys up there for a weekend (July 12-14th). Any chance you would want to get our kids together for a run, we will BBQ for you guys afterwards. You can e-mail me at swittkop@lbusd.org

chihrun
07-02-2013, 07:38 AM
Unless I missed it I saw rankings for the SS for D1 Boys, but anyone come up with a ranking of D1 Boys for the state?

Thanks

cush
07-02-2013, 10:24 PM
i've marshaled exactly no scientific data, excluded most rational thought, and depended completely on the hunches of a former l.a. city section athlete and a d2 coach who has not qualified for state the last two years:

1. o'brien's army.
2. hmmm...i don't know. dana hills?
3. madera south?
4. de la salle?
5. o'brien's army "b" team.
6-19. some teams from big schools throughout california.
20-23. some teams from san francisco, oakland, and l.a. city sections (none of whom will be inviting me to a bbq after this post...).

that's my story and i'm sticking to it...

Tony DiMarco
07-06-2013, 10:36 PM
While I admit what you have above is much more accurate than what I have... ;) I thought I would add mine for fun. Again... this is based on races run at Woodward Park ONLY... Ok, not 100%... Some teams didn't run at Woodward more than just the State Meet so finding 7 runners or in some cases 5 runners for a scoring team was not easy... I decided for fun I would find a way to make these teams appear in the results. So Vista Murrieta, Torrey Pines and Madera South were given some help. Vista and Torrey Pines were given their Mt. Sac Invite times plus .16 while Madera needed one more guy which they had based on Woodbridge results (actually two) and were given the same time as their #4 man.

OK... I know, I know, I know... but I'm not Rich so it can't be perfect! Also, I added Warren since they bring back 6 guys who ran at the Clovis Invite. Now using everyone's best time on the course in 2012 doesn't take into account teams that didn't run as well at the State Meet (actually it hurt a few... mine was one of them). Also for what ever reason Torrey Pines didn't run that well at the state meet so I changed a couple of their times to reflect what they ran at Mt. Sac since in one case it was a significant change.

Not perfect... not even close but... Shoot, we should of just gone with Cush on this one :D

1 Tal Braude 11 14:57 Torrey Pines
2 Estevan De La Rosa 11 15:05 Arcadia
3 Miguel Bautista 11 15:20 Poly (Long Beach)
4 Phillip Rocha 9 15:27 Arcadia
5 Gabe Collison 11 15:30 Crescenta Valley
6 Matthew Schumann 10 15:32 De La Salle
7 Jake Ogden 9 15:38 Dana Hills
8 Garrett Mullennix 11 15:39 Vista Murrieta
9 Josue Gonzalez 11 15:40 Arcadia
10 Mahmoud Moussa 11 15:42 Arcadia
11 Luke Williams 11 15:43 De La Salle
11 David Garcia 11 15:43 Madera South
13 Jose Pacheco 11 15:45 California (Whittier)
13 Gavin Diem 11 15:45 Dana Hills
15 Jovani Gamboa 11 15:47 Poly (Long Beach)
16 Benjamin Gonzalez 10 15:48 Warren
17 Christian Vasquez 11 15:49 Poly (Long Beach)
18 Connor Nolen 11 15:50 Clovis North
18 Anthony Palazzo 10 15:50 Poly (Long Beach)
20 Jacob Williams 11 15:53 Buchanan
21 Matlazomatli Rojas 11 15:56 California (Whittier)
22 Jarrick Wenslow 11 15:57 Arcadia
23 Miles Meijer 10 16:02 Bellarmine Prep
24 Nick Serrao 11 16:03 Dana Hills
25 Maurilio Sanchez 11 16:04 Vista Murrieta
26 Bryan Ngo 11 16:05 Arcadia
27 Jonathan Rodriguez 10 16:06 Warren
28 Arthur Schulte 11 16:07 Carlmont
28 Juan Macias 10 16:07 Madera South
30 Matt Manalo 11 16:08 Crescenta Valley
30 Nick Beatty 11 16:08 Crescenta Valley
30 Wyler Svoboda 11 16:08 Dana Hills
33 Thomas Tran 11 16:10 Arcadia
34 Eduardo Herrera 9 16:12 Madera South
35 Edwin Morales 11 16:13 Santee EC
36 Myles Delgado 10 16:14 Clovis North
37 Justin Barry 11 16:15 Bellarmine Prep
38 Trevor Voth 10 16:16 Buchanan
39 Zachary Ponce 11 16:18 Poly (Long Beach)
40 Brian Song 10 16:19 Davis Sr.
41 Rudy Gonzalez 11 16:21 California (Whittier)
42 Alex Sasser 10 16:22 Bellarmine Prep
42 Clark Messman 11 16:22 De La Salle
42 Eris De La Torre 11 16:22 Poly (Long Beach)
45 Taylor Guinnip 11 16:22 Woodcreek
46 Andres Bernal 10 16:23 Warren
47 Davey Wong 11 16:24 Vista Murrieta
48 Mark Vingralek 10 16:25 Carlmont
48 Ryan Dimick 11 16:25 Carlmont
48 Jasper Laca 11 16:25 Davis Sr.
48 Clinton Tak 11 16:25 Vista Murrieta
52 Michael Hernandez 11 16:26 Warren
53 Michael Marquez 11 16:28 Madera South
53 Jesus Cacique 10 16:28 Madera South
53 Andres Bartolo 10 16:28 Madera South
56 Colby Penn 9 16:30 Poly (Long Beach)
57 Anthony Sassano 11 16:31 Buchanan
57 Danahel Carbajal 10 16:31 Clovis North
57 Spencer Dodds 9 16:31 Torrey Pines
60 Timothy Wilson 11 16:32 Dana Hills
61 Matt Seidel 11 16:33 Bellarmine Prep
61 Ezra Soriano 11 16:33 El Camino Real
61 Ricky Buckelew 11 16:33 El Camino Real
64 Psalm Ocampo 10 16:36 Clovis North
64 Brandon Iraheta 11 16:36 Warren
66 Marshall Sears 11 16:37 Woodcreek
67 Luis Romo 10 16:39 Woodcreek
68 Sammy Harned 10 16:40 Dana Hills
68 Noah Diamant 10 16:40 Torrey Pines
70 Joey Benrubi 11 16:42 Dana Hills
71 Trey Schwartz 11 16:44 De La Salle
72 Samuel Bautista 10 16:45 California (Whittier)
72 Gavin Monges 11 16:45 Davis Sr.
74 Dontrell Davis 11 16:46 Santee EC
75 Ryan Vance 11 16:48 Clovis North
76 Kurtis Shaffer 11 16:50 Torrey Pines
77 James Schulte 11 16:52 Carlmont
78 Casey Magid 11 16:53 Crescenta Valley
79 Ricardo Avila 10 16:54 Bellarmine Prep
80 Daniel Rowen 11 16:55 Davis Sr.
81 Josh Pleva 11 16:56 Bellarmine Prep
82 Spencer Lachman 10 16:57 Woodcreek
83 Sean Wanket 10 16:58 De La Salle
84 Adam Rowton 10 17:00 Crescenta Valley
84 Jack Kuzminsky 11 17:00 Torrey Pines
86 Thomas Payne 10 17:02 Vista Murrieta
87 Chris Malloy 10 17:03 Vista Murrieta
88 Alex Trejo 10 17:07 California (Whittier)
88 David Lennon 11 17:07 Clovis North
90 Tucker Meijer 10 17:09 Bellarmine Prep
90 Eric Nunez 9 17:09 Vista Murrieta
92 Adam Clarke 10 17:10 Woodcreek
93 Tom Pritsky 9 17:15 Buchanan
93 Kellen Browning 9 17:15 Davis Sr.
95 Chris Goertzen 10 17:17 Clovis North
95 Matt Owens 11 17:17 Crescenta Valley
97 William Weber 11 17:18 El Camino Real
98 Alex Arnheiter 11 17:19 Davis Sr.
99 Lucas Matison 10 17:22 Carlmont
100 Jonathan Garcia 10 17:23 El Camino Real
101 Manav Vats 10 17:24 Crescenta Valley
102 Charlie Pope 9 17:25 Torrey Pines
103 Jesus Cortes 9 17:26 Santee EC
104 Blake Croft 10 17:27 Davis Sr.
105 Drew Christofferson 10 17:30 Torrey Pines
106 Nick Zortman 11 17:32 Woodcreek
107 Justin Martinez 10 17:33 Santee EC
108 Ever Morales 11 17:34 Santee EC
109 William Chacon 10 17:46 California (Whittier)
110 Ramiro Diaz 11 17:47 Santee EC
111 Jonah Villegas 10 17:50 Buchanan
112 Owen Weitzel 10 17:51 Woodcreek
113 Noel Echerverria 9 18:04 California (Whittier)
114 Dominic Prandini 10 18:14 Buchanan
115 Christopher Kolar 9 18:20 Buchanan
116 Mason Fordham 11 18:39 El Camino Real
117 Anthony Campos 11 18:40 El Camino Real


1 Arcadia 47 77:51:00
2 Poly (Long Beach) 92 79:04:00
3 Dana Hills 134 80:06:00
4 Madera South 179 80:58:00
5 Warren 205 81:19:00
6 De La Salle 213 81:19:00
7 Vista Murrieta 214 81:34:00
8 Crescenta Valley 227 81:39:00
9 California 235 81:54:00
10 Bellarmine Prep 242 82:06:00
11 Clovis North 250 81:59:00
12 Torrey Pines 286 81:58:00
13 Carlmont 300 83:11:00
14 Buchanan 319 83:45:00
15 Davis Sr. 333 83:39:00
16 Woodcreek 352 83:45:00
17 Santee EC 427 85:32:00
18 El Camino Real 435 86:26:00

Keith Chann
08-06-2013, 09:29 AM
With Rich's rankings coming out sometime in the near future (sometime soon??) I guess it is time for these to make their way back up to the top. A lot of coaches have had their input and this thread really gives many others a place to start for motivation and/or inspiration.