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Keith Chann
05-13-2014, 09:28 AM
With the majority of the track season over and many distance coaches beginning to look to the XC season, it is time to revisit the top returning teams for the 2014 XC campaign.

Great Oak has jumped to the front of the pack with their strong returners and outstanding track times. Nick Doan will lead the way after running 15:05 at Mt. SAC and having an incredible track season (1:55/4:15/9:05), but he is not alone. GO has at least 8 runners who have broken 10:00 in the 3200, including 4 (Doan, Robinson, Cortes and Gleason) at 9:30 or better. Those 4 plus Cole Spencer all ran better than 15:50 last year giving Great Oak the edge as the (my) pre-season state number 1.

Madera South returns 5 guys that were under 16:20 at Woodward Park last season with 3 of them (Herrera, Villar and Macias) being under 15:50! Their track times have been solid but not spectacular, except for Herrera who has run 9:07. Madera South has 4 under 9:50 and 2 more under 10:20. They are a solid #2 pre-season.


Warren blasted to an incredible performance last year in winning the Southern Section Division 1 Championship but could not repeat that performance a week later in Fresno. They return 3 runners at 16:00 or better from Woodward park with another at 16:18. They have the best returning top 3 of any team in the State with Gonzalez (14:45 at Mt. SAC), Rodriguez (15:01) and Barragan (15:14). These 3 have run 9:31 or better in the 3200 this spring and Warren has 2 more under 10:00 to give them serious back-up power as they look to repeat in the South and take the top step in Fresno.

Jurupa Hills pulled off the shocker last year in winning the D3 State Championship mainly on the back of 4 outstanding juniors. This year those juniors will need a little help to repeat but are certainly capable. They had 4 runners at or under 16:03 in the State meet. This spring Jurupa Hills has 4 of its returning XC runners under 9:50. If a 5th runner can join this party, they may challenge the top 3 teams.

Many other top teams looking to be in the top 5-10 spots including: Brea Olinda, Saugus, Bellarmine Prep, Rubidoux and Davis Senior, Canyon (Anaheim), Tesoro, El Modena.

State your case ...

Joe Wiley
05-13-2014, 04:32 PM
I won't predict the future. If the race were held this weekend I think these would be your top two teams when looking at 9-11th graders. GO could absorb injuries better than BO due to their depth, which is very helpful during a long season of racing.


GO
Doan - 9:05
Robinson - 9:25
Cortes - 4:21
Fountain - 4:24
Gleeson - 9:30


BO
Tamagno - 4:06
Shellito - 4:18
Escobar - 4:26
Sipple - 4:29
Orellana - 4:30

Keith Chann
05-14-2014, 07:02 AM
Warren returns runners with Mt. SAC times of 14:45, 15:01, 15:14, 15:50 and 16:07. Those runners have run 3200m times of 9:22, 9:31, 9:25, 9:53 and the 16:07 runner only has a 1600m time that I could find (4:53). Brea returns runners with Mt. SAC times of 14:34, 15:24, 15:27, 16:03 and 16:17. Those runners have track times of 8:56, 9:51, 4:18, no time found and 9:45. While Brea does show more speed with mile times, Warren returns superior cross country times and shows better track times with respect to the 3200m, which is more indicative of cross country success.

The difference between 14:34 and 14:45 may seem significant but in reality it is probably only 3-5 points in scoring a cross country meet. With Warren having 3 runners before the 2nd from Brea and with Brea having 2 runners over 16 minutes, there are considerable point differences there. In a championship style race, every second over 16 minutes is usually at least 1 point. This trends toward a large advantage for Warren over Brea.

Is Brea Olinda still a major force in the top level of California cross country? Without a doubt. However, in my humble opinion at this time, they would be 4th or 5th at best. I chose Jurupa Hills as my #4 team simply because the two are very even but Jurupa Hills beat Brea last year and return their 4 outstanding seniors-to-be while Brea lost a couple from their awesome team last year.

[yes I know I am waaayyy to into this already and I am seeking help with my affliction!!]

Keith Chann
05-28-2014, 06:41 AM
My pre-preseason top 10 based on 2013 XC results, projected returners, 2014 track times, absolute lack of common sense, a little prognostication, coaching acumen, and the post-it notes on my desk:

1) Great Oak
2) Madera South
3) Warren
4) Brea Olinda
5) Jurupa Hills*
6) Belarmine Prep
7) Rubidoux
8) Canyon (Anaheim)
9) Saugus
10) Davis Sr.

This does not include transfers or some of those absolute stud young men moving into the high school ranks next season! (Melecio Gonzalez, Erik Hatch, Raymon Ornelas, John Dempsy and others)

Doug Soles
05-28-2014, 09:26 AM
Dana Hills? Gotta be top 5 with Ogden and Coppi alone...

Loyola? Anyone know if they will be D1 or D2 next year? Always an amazing team.

Doug

Keith Chann
05-28-2014, 11:36 AM
Dana Hills? Gotta be top 5 with Ogden and Coppi alone...

Loyola? Anyone know if they will be D1 or D2 next year? Always an amazing team.


Dana Hills has a very good 1-3 when you add in Smith (14:41, 15:11, 15:30 Mt. SAC times) but fall off precipitously after that (16:24, 16:35, 16:56). They certainly have a history of producing quality runners but currently need some help to be in the top 5. Incoming freshmen?

Loyola also lacks depth (14:42, 15:45, 16:12, 16:48, 16:50) returning. Again their history says that they will be in the mix at the end but also need some help. They almost always get at least 1 impact freshmen.

Joe Wiley
05-28-2014, 12:01 PM
Dana Hills will be there. Their 4-5-6 runners are right around 10:00 in the 3200 and are composed of 2 sophs and a frosh. Coppi will be phenomenal next season. He's got all the tools. So, at almost any meet it's going to be the score of their 3-4-5 runners + 3-10 points at most.

eddierod
05-28-2014, 04:51 PM
Has anyone taken a look at Ventura? Maybe they can break this list

Reynolds 10 15:29 mt sac/9:19/4:22
Askar 11 15:46 mt sac/9:21/4:22
Mountcastle 11 16:01 mt sac/???/4:26
Cruz 10 16:02 mt sac/9:39
Olson 9 16:58 mt sac/9:50/4:33
Rodriguez 10 16:13 mt sac/10:04

Keith Chann
05-29-2014, 07:14 AM
Has anyone taken a look at Ventura? Maybe they can break this list

Dana Hills and Ventura should certainly be in the conversation for top 10. The last 2 in and the first 2 out are all very close together. I put more weight on cross country times unless the track times are remarkable improvements, my personal bias. Dana Hills certainly has an advantage when you look at 1-3 since they return 14:41, 15:11 and 15:30 Mt. SAC times. Saugus has 14:58, 15:22 and 15:33 making them a clear second best through 3 runners. The real scoring issue is in runners toward the middle of the races, those in the 15:45- 16:20 range. In D1 SS-Finals there were 37 runners in that time gap, for D2 it was 43 runners and in D3 it was 33 runners. Dana Hills’ next returning runner is at 16:24 while Saugus has a 16:10. The difference between a 14:41 and a 14:58 would normally be 5 points at most while the difference between 16:10 and 16:24 could be 20! Certainly the case could, and should, be made for Ventura and Dana Hills but I saw Saugus, with 5 runners under 10:00 in the 3200, just slightly ahead of Dana Hills with only 3 under 10:00.
Ventura cannot match the top 3 of either school having only 15:29, 15:46 and 16:01 as returners. However, they do put 5 runners under 16:15 and they do have 5 runners at 9:50 or better for the 3200. Can the better back-end scoring of Ventura overcome the front-end scoring of both Saugus and Dana Hills? I am not so sure about that, but it is a very close match.

Because Davis Sr. is not in the Southern Section and does not run Mt. SAC, it is not as easy to compare them. Perhaps they should be behind Ventura and Dana Hills; that is probably true. I think I was just looking for another non-SS school to round out the top 10. On 3rd evaluation they should probably be 12th.

I do love the debates. There are so many coaches out there that have great insight and information, I really just wanted to get the conversations started.

Mark Gardner
05-29-2014, 10:26 AM
Pissed off..... are you kidding me?!?!?! How do you NOT have Corona in your Top 5?!!!!! :cool:

Keith Chann
05-29-2014, 03:46 PM
Pissed off..... are you kidding me?!?!?! How do you NOT have Corona in your Top 5?!!!!!
While we do understand your interest in our rankings we regret to inform you that at this time we are unable to offer you a position in our rankings. We do get many very fine squads competing for a limited number of spots, we wish you success this upcoming season and will certainly keep you in mind if our needs change. Please keep us apprised of any changes in your status that may affect your status. Good luck in your future endeavors.

Joe Wiley
05-29-2014, 05:09 PM
Corona 2014 T&F 1600

4:24 - Robles - 11
4:25 - Silva - 11
4:27 - Brooks - 11
4:34 - Villa - 9
4:34 - Spatter - 10
4:34 - Bell - 11

I'd say 15th to 1st at CIF in one year is possible if they put the work in and the stars align. Villa and Spatter should be able to close the gap to those front 3. Put 5 kids under 15:30 at Mt. SAC and good things are going to happen.

JStepp
05-29-2014, 07:05 PM
Pissed off..... are you kidding me?!?!?! How do you NOT have Corona in your Top 5?!!!!! :cool:

No one gets in the top 5 until they win the HDC in the YV. So pack up your bus and get out hereSept. 26th.:p

formerCArunner
05-31-2014, 10:20 AM
Just like when I ran in high school in California, the competition in the state is insane. Some of my runners here in Alabama have looked at the California results with lots of interest.

TheBread'n'Butter
06-10-2014, 07:33 PM
I agree with all of these lists. One thing though that I think could take the state by surprise this coming season is the San Diego section. There are some really talented programs in that section, especially young talent. Del Norte was a big player in DIII but lost momentum coming towards the close of their season, could they come back stronger this year? Also in DIII from SD is University City and Canyon Crest. They went 7, University City, and 8, Canyon Crest, in the state meet last year with a gap of only 4 points, also University City could be one of the deepest team in DIII which was showcased last year when they placed 10th in the Mt.SAC D3 sweepstakes and then won the DIII JV Sweepstakes over Jurupa Hills.If we are using track times as an indicator University City has the upper hand with 4 guys running sub 4:30 in the 1600 and only one is a senior. Canyon Crest also has talent that unfortunately did not reveal itself on the boy's side in track. Some other major players from San Diego are La Jolla Country Day a very strong competitor in DV especially with Julius Diehr returning, and Natalia La Spada for the girls. Other teams include the annual major players of Carlsbad and La Costa Canyon, although they will be missing their top runner Steven Fahy. Westview I believe certainly should have a bid in for top 10 easily at state this coming year with a lot of strong returning runners. Mt. Carmel could surprise this following season after losing some major parts of their team. Any thoughts?

Keith Chann
06-20-2014, 10:45 AM
Martin, king has a good team returning but they are very far from the fastest 5 returning! They do not even have the fastest 5 returners in the Big 8. King returns 15:42, 15:44, 16:12, 16:16 and 16:20 for a team time of 80:14. Corona returns a team time of 80:05. The top returning teams in the SS are Warren at 76:57 (!!), Great Oak 77:06, Brea Olinda 77:45 and Jurupa Hills 78:05. There are at least 10 teams from the Southern Section that return teams under 80:00. There are also many teams in the other sections that, if they ran Mt. SAC, would be in that mix. I have King on my watch list for the top 20 but not in the top 15 at this point. There is definitely potential for a very good season but in the big picture King is not quite in there yet.

Keith Chann
06-26-2014, 07:48 AM
Here is my latest version of the 2014 California Cross Country rankings. This time I have gone 20 deep. Big variables here not factored in are transfers and incoming freshmen. Let the debates continue. Here goes ...

1) Great Oak
2) Madera South
3) Warren
4) Brea Olinda
5) Jurupa Hills
6) Bellarmine Prep
7) Rubidoux
8) Saugus
9) Canyon (Anaheim)
10) Dana Hills
11) Ventura
12) Davis Sr.
13) Agoura
14) ML King
15) Corona
16) El Modena
17) Tesoro
18) Loyola
19) Clovis North
20) Palos Verdes

Who was left out?
Who else should be on the watch list?
Where are the top freshmen going?
Who is going to rank the girls?
Will the top teams from different divisions get to race each other?

Mark Gardner
06-28-2014, 08:47 PM
Keith - with all due respect, you should honestly leave any type of rankings or prognostications to the veterans and powers to be. Please do not take offense, but your Mickey Mouse-style of rankings, with little yellow sticky notes all over your desk is outdated to say the least. Most of your rankings are off of hear-say, personal bias and obviously slighted towards teams in your squads' own personal division and local area. For now, leave all of this to the professionals. Stop traveling through the various lands that Disney offers and stay in the present, the realistic and, well... the educated. I hope this does not come off as too negative as tone is often overlooked and misunderstood when communicated through written format... I do apologize if this came off as audacious and rude. You're a good guy with good intentions.

MEANWHILE, here is a quick look at the top girls' teams in California!!
This is simply going off of results from last November...

1) Great Oak
2) Davis
3) Saugus
4) Trabuco Hills
5) Redondo Union
6) Capistrano Valley
7) Simi Valley
8) Campolindo
9) Vista Murrieta
10) Arroyo Grande
others right off the cusp: Bella Vista, Buchanan, Mira Costa, San Clemente, Serrano

cush
06-29-2014, 11:46 AM
...powers to be...
For now, leave all of this to the professionals.
Stop traveling through the various lands that Disney offers and stay in the present, the realistic and, well... the educated. I hope this does not come off as too negative as tone is often overlooked and misunderstood when communicated through written format... I do apologize if this came off as audacious and rude.


full discloure: i don't know keith chann (at least i don't think i do). i think i've met mark, but can't be sure.

that said, who are the "powers that be?" when do i get my personal invitation to this exclusive club? rich gonzalez, have you been holding out on me?

professionals? there are professional prognosticators on this site? personally, i can't remember when someone was right with these rankings, unless they're predicting the weather in the inland empire...

as far as audacious and rude--i'm assuming you've got some history together here that i'm not privy to that maybe explains this differently--but how else is the comment about the "various lands that disney offers" supposed to come off? just askin'...

what i've always liked about the rankings on this site--at least up until a few weeks before c.i.f. when at-larges are at stake--is there is pretty much no blood, no foul, nor is there much potential for either. so i'm ranking foothill's (ss) boys' and girls' x-c teams #1 in the state :confused::):mad::cool: across all divisions, and, until someone else can definitively prove otherwise,

that's my story and i'm sticking to it....

yours in all things rank, ranking, and ranking rogers,
cush

Mark Gardner
06-29-2014, 05:10 PM
Wow - sarcasm does not come off too well here!

Keith is currently at Disney World with his family. As he was standing in line, in trying to keep him occupied, we were discussing how these message boards continue to be so dead! Like I have any idea of how to rank girls' teams.... !!! :cool:

I was just joking around guys.... perhaps too much lemonade that evening~~~~~~:rolleyes:

cush
06-29-2014, 05:22 PM
Wow - sarcasm does not come off too well here!

Keith is currently at Disney World with his family. As he was standing in line, in trying to keep him occupied, we were discussing how these message boards continue to be so dead! Like I have any idea of how to rank girls' teams.... !!! :cool:

I was just joking around guys.... perhaps too much lemonade that evening~~~~~~:rolleyes:

oh...then with a nod to gilda radner's character, emily litella... never mind.

Keith Chann
06-29-2014, 05:53 PM
Which teams should be ranked differently? I have data for the teams that I ranked, but I am open to specific information. Noone else has done their 20 deep rankings so I am getting the debate going. Please feel free to post your own. That is why I started the thread. The court (of public opinion) is open

lbxcart
06-29-2014, 10:51 PM
I kind of wish this tread was on facebook, so I could like some of your guys's comments!!!! Since I actually know keith I can say he knows his stuff when it comes to rankings. Biased? Honestly we are all biased, just depends on who you care to pay attention to and what divisions you care about. Keith did do a great job of bring some interest back to this board, so i'm happy he started this tread (kind of like how I started the small school one). BTW anyone enjoy the clinic at mt sac yesterday?

Doug Soles
07-01-2014, 09:36 PM
Hi Keith,

Don't listen to those meanies, you are a superstar ranker and we all know it. ;)

I got bored so I ranked the girls teams. I in no way mean any ill will, disrespect, and or slights by these rankings. This is just the ignorant list of a coach who is watching these teams very closely. This is not purely numbers, it has my biases written all over it. I filled in the blanks for some teams because I believe their coaches will find some talent and coach them up, and didn't for others because I wasn't sure about their team other than the numbers I saw. This is purely for speculation. Enjoy.

2014 Pre-Season - Overall Girls Teams
1 Saugus
2 Davis
3 Great Oak
4 Buchanan
5 Redondo Union
6 Campolindo
7 Trabuco Hills
8 Capo Valley
9 Simi Valley
10 Arroyo Grande
11 Clovis North
12 La Costa Canyon
13 Bella Vista
14 Vista Murrieta
15 Mira Costa
16 Dana Hills
17 San Clemente
18 Palos Verdes
19 St. Francis
20 Yucaipa
21 Palisades Charter
22 Serrano
23 Oak Park
24 Monta Vista (CCS)
25 El Toro

-Which teams will surprise people next season? Arroyo Grande and Redondo are my pick. I know Redondo is always good, but Arroyo is young and getting more firepower with incoming 9th graders. Look for them to make the big jump and surprise teams early.

-Which team could make the biggest jump with one really good frosh? Oak Park. They get any help or improvements and they could be one of the top 10 teams in the state, even from the smaller division.

-Team I fear the most? Buchanan. They struggled at state last year with their #1 down with the flu, but with her healthy they are right in the mix. 3 girls sub 11 in track and plenty of depth in the 800 and 1600. If they get a stellar frosh or have anyone make a big jump, they could be #1 overall.

-Who is getting a transfer or frosh that would change the above list? Where am I wrong?

Doug

Keith Chann
07-02-2014, 04:02 PM
Thanks Doug. I do it for myself mostly so I don't usually mind other's comments.
We are in the period of inactivity (for racing) and much prognostication! The next updates will be when we find out where all those stud freshmen will be going (Melecio Gonzalez, Erik Hatch, Raymon Ornelas, John Dempsy and others)!

Transfers are another issue and those will probably not be known until school starts. Of course some coaches and others know things but won't reveal!

Any ranking, boys or girls, that does not have GO on the top line is rubbish anyway!

Keith Chann
07-09-2014, 01:39 PM
Four teams: Mt. SAC times and track times given

Team A
14:55 (9:19)
15:38 (9:54)
15:47 (9:47)
15:53 (9:46
16:24
16:35

Team B
14:58 (9:04)
15:28 (9:52)
15:33 (9:22)
16:10 (4:41)
16:35 (9:37)
17:04 (10:03)

Team C
15:29 (9:19)
15:46 (9:21)
16:01 (4:26)
16:02 (9:39)
16:13 (10:04)
16:32 (10:08)
16:58 (9:50)

Team D
15:05 (9:35)
15:33 (9:51/4:29)
15:50 (9:53)
15:53 (9:39)
15:53 (9:48)
16:07

What order?

dudewhoruns
07-10-2014, 12:58 PM
Seeing as I am not the most influential in giving my personal opinion in rankings across the state, I will entertain the thought of the choices I am presented.
I am also assuming projected improvement from track, so here is my guess....

If I was to look at these four teams in a Finals setting, I would probably go with team D to win it. They may not have the most impressive track times, but they have the strongest 5th man. (Well almost none of those times match up, but I assume injuries or just not a track type team like Barstow in its glory days)

I would probably go B next simply because the 9:37 stands out, but I am trusting this character doesn't let me down because I don't normally trust track times. Following that I will say A for third and C to round out my top four.

Joe Wiley
07-13-2014, 10:00 AM
Four teams: Mt. SAC times and track times given

Team A
14:55 (9:19)
15:38 (9:54)
15:47 (9:47)
15:53 (9:46
16:24
16:35

Team B
14:58 (9:04)
15:28 (9:52)
15:33 (9:22)
16:10 (4:41)
16:35 (9:37)
17:04 (10:03)

Team C
15:29 (9:19)
15:46 (9:21)
16:01 (4:26)
16:02 (9:39)
16:13 (10:04)
16:32 (10:08)
16:58 (9:50)

Team D
15:05 (9:35)
15:33 (9:51/4:29)
15:50 (9:53)
15:53 (9:39)
15:53 (9:48)
16:07

What order?

The data you provided is pretty limited . How about you just tell us which teams those letters represent and I will play the oracle.

Keith Chann
07-14-2014, 08:28 AM
I wanted to give the weekend for people to consider the teams for ranking order. Without team names it takes away some of the bias but adds others.

A = Canyon
B = Saugus
C = Ventura
D = Rubidoux

dudewhoruns
07-14-2014, 10:09 AM
Now that you add team names that changes everything! Actually, that changes nothing for me, I stand by my picks. It would have taken the fun out of it if I did do the research.
Keith your team better not let me down this year, or else I am gonna look bad in front of the people who actually know me :rolleyes:

Jeremy Mattern
07-14-2014, 09:21 PM
This is serious stuff, Keith.
1. Rubidoux - I hear the coach makes them drink turtle blood. Seemed to work for some athletes in Ma's Army back in the day.
2. Saugus - I hear the coach makes them eat turtles, shell and all. Pretty hard core, but digestive problems may catch up with them.
3. Canyon - If they can convince their 800 league champ to quit baseball and log some miles, they'll be solid. Get on it, Bendzick.
4. Ventura - My wife's hometown, but she went to Buena, and she may leave me if I rank her rival higher. No hard feelings, coach.

Keith Chann
07-18-2014, 04:09 PM
Thanks dudewhoruns. I sincerely hope that your former boys continue their successes. I will try to not make you look bad. Definitely not a team with great track record, so to speak. My front runner is as solid as anyone but the 3-5 depth will be the real test.

Jeremy, not sure about those turtles! Rene will have his boys ready for battle this year. Good call with keeping the wife happy! Great job with Austin this year. See you during the season, Woodbridge?

xcrunner2014
07-18-2014, 09:37 PM
Thanks Doug. I do it for myself mostly so I don't usually mind other's comments.
We are in the period of inactivity (for racing) and much prognostication! The next updates will be when we find out where all those stud freshmen will be going (Melecio Gonzalez, Erik Hatch, Raymon Ornelas, John Dempsy and others)!

Transfers are another issue and those will probably not be known until school starts. Of course some coaches and others know things but won't reveal!

Any ranking, boys or girls, that does not have GO on the top line is rubbish anyway!

Erik Hatch is joining Long Beach Poly

Keith Chann
08-11-2014, 09:05 PM
New divisional cut offs will certainly change the divisional rankings but do not change the overall. Jurupa will now jump to the front of D2 after being 2nd in D3. Agoura will be #3 in D3. Ventura also become a big player in its new division.