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Thread: Official Unofficial 2013 Cross-Country "Rankings" Thread

  1. #1
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    Official Unofficial 2013 Cross-Country "Rankings" Thread

    Since my team resides in souther section division II that's what I'll post.

    Disclaimer #1: "All I know is that I don't know"
    Disclaimer #2: These so-called rankings are really observations. I have little to no knowledge of coaching changes, transfers, incoming freshman or news of debilitating injuries that might alter the information below. Most schools are one top newcomer away from being a Southern Section power. Just last year South Torrance had freshman track standout Kim Coscia come out for XC in 2012 only to be joined by the freshman Beadoin sisters and WHAM! They're one of the top teams in the section.

    On to the rankings:
    1) Simi Valley: Although they competed at the division one level last year, I have a hunch they will be division two this year and the pre-season favorites. There's two reasons for this. 1) Sarah Baxter and 2) Sarah Baxter! It always helps to start your scoring with 1-point, but Sarah Baxter also makes her teammates better. Her very presence in races has elevated her Pioneer teammates to new levels of confidence and performance. Add to that 10:47 3200m runner Charlotte Utash and they become tough. But they also boast a strong and experienced junior class that has been through the wars. Desirae Jones, Samantha Tetef, Olivia Roselini and Sarah Riggs have all hovered around 18:00 at Mt. Sac the last two years. This combination of talented front-runners and a fast, deep, pack make them the pre-season favorites in division two and hungry for their first state title after finishing 3rd last year in division one.

    2) Serrano: Last season's 3rd place state team returns 6 of 7 and is one of the rare teams to reload with three sub-18:00 Mt. Sac athletes. Led by all-state performer Melissa Fairchild, they are a team that can do serious damage if they can get their #4-5 runners closer to the front. Last season they broke away from a pack of quality DII programs to get on the podium. A similar effort this year could see them move up another step.

    3) Mira Costa: Every season it seems like this team will finally fall off the radar, but like clockwork they come off a solid track season and are back in the hunt again. 2013 will be no different. Despite losing two 11:00 3200m runners to graduation, the Mustangs return 5 of 7 led by sub-5 minute 1600m runner Abby Hong. The difference this Fall will be the continued development of junior Emma Lautanen and newcomer Alexis Johnson, who are both enjoying stellar track seasons. Led by veteran Coach Renee Williams-Smith (an alumnus of El Camino), they will be a force again come November.

    4) South Torrance: I rank this team here because they may have the most upside of any program in division two. Last year they made Southern Section finals as a 3-woman team, the development or arrival of one or more runners could propel them to the very top. Kim Coscia and the Beaudoin twins have at a young age proven their mettle in Cross-Country AND on the track. Coach Brian Tokuda (El Camino alumni) has patiently brought them along well to this point and we may see yet another breakthrough come this Fall.

    5) Moorpark: Many may find this team as a surprise pick at #5, but if you've studied this division closely you will know that Moorpark has quietly assembled a strong group of talented young runners led by 17:27 Mt. Sac performer Monika Gyalay. The Ip sisters and 2:17 800m runner Michelle Maignani will make them a dangerous team next XC season.

    6) Claremont: The best team to not make the state meet last year, Claremont returns 6 of 7 with five sub-19 Mt. Sac performers led by veterans Megan Renken and Merin Arft. The strength of this team is it's tight pack running approach. If they can move through the field a little better than last year, they could make it all the way to the podium.

    7) Redondo: The perennial track power is having yet another dynamite year. But you would be hard pressed to find another program that performs as consistently well in XC as the Sea Hawks. They have suffered from graduation losses the last two seasons and will be tested like never before in 2013. 800m standout Amber Gore will lead the charge next season, but it will be the development of new varsity athletes such as track star Anevay Hiehle and newcomer Breya Wynn that will decide how far this team can climb in the rankings. If there's anyone that can turn a track runner into a XC contender, it's Coach Bob Leetch (the 3rd of four El Camino alumni guiding teams in these rankings)

    8) Woodbridge: On paper they don't look like a top ten team, but Coach George Varvas continually finds a way to get his teams competing at the championship meets. Senior veterans Madeline Bradford, Kylie Oefelein and 2:15 800m Janice Lane are the latest group to lead the Warriors to post-season glory.

    9) Glendora: The best school to not make the Southern Section finals. They were on the outside looking in after a tough draw in the prelims. But they are back in 2013 with most of their 2012 team intact, led by junior Micaela Lamb. Undoubtedly this team will be hungry for redemption.

    10) Colony: The numbers don't justify this ranking, but over the past 4-years Coach Jose Rangel has defied the odds and had his team in the hunt each season. I'm not betting against them this year either. Led by senior Katrina Fix (one of the most underrated runners in the section), their success will depend heavily on the development of their younger runners.

    On the bubble: Ayala, Tesoro, Foothill, Canyon (Anaheim)

    Individuals later. Maybe.
    Last edited by Remylive; 04-29-2013 at 11:54 PM. Reason: I do what I want
    Note to self: no one cares

  2. #2
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    Southern Section Division 3 Unofficial Pre-preseason Rankings

    I will steal Rene's disclaimers as well:

    Disclaimer #1: "All I know is that I don't know"
    Disclaimer #2: These so-called rankings are really observations. I have little to no knowledge of coaching changes, transfers, incoming freshman or news of debilitating injuries that might alter the information below. Most schools are one top newcomer away from being a Southern Section power. (it is not as common for freshmen boys to make huge impacts on their teams in the top 10 but look what happened last year!!)

    Overview:Last year this division seemed like a 2 team race for almost all the season with St. John Bosco and Palos Verdes leading the charge. As November rolled around, Brea Olinda made a big jump up to challenge the front 2 and then Jurupa Hills and Paso Robles joined the party as podium contenders. When all was said and done, Palos Verdes dominated the rain course at Mt. SAC and walked away with the Southern Section Championship while St. John Bosco rebounded from a poor performance (relative to their own potential only) to win the California State Championship.

    This year the team battle it looks more competitive up front than in recent years. Many of the top teams took heavy hit with graduation losses, SJB returns only 2 of its scoring 5 at the State meet while Palos Verdes loses 4 from its top 7. Brea Olinda and Jurupa Hills were both quite young last year as BO only loses 1 of its scoring 5 and JH returns all of the members of a team that placed 5th in Fresno.

    Just a bit on times used for this: 1) I looked at data from CIF-SS prelims and finals as well as State and Mt. SAC Inv. 2) A conversion factor of 18 seconds was used to compare Woodward Park to Mt. SAC 3) A rain course conversion was applied by multiplying the CIF-SS finals time by 1.07 4) a best time was deduced from all the meets the athlete ran and used as a basis for time comparisons.

    1) Brea Olinda – They were the first team to jump out of the pack and challenge the top 2 programs last season. This year they will be the hunted. Brea returns freshman star Tamagno who ran 15:17 at Mt SAC and 15:34 at Woodward Park. Those times, along with his amazing track season (4:11 and 9:18 so far) make him one of the favorites for the individual crown. Teammates Koryta is also under 15:30 plus 2 more under 16:00. Normal progression should have this team get all its scorers under 16:00.
    2) Jurupa Hills – An extremely young but well coached bunch last season, the Spartans were definitely the surprise of the division. Not only did they make the State Championship but finished 5th without a senior on the team! This year they return knowing what it takes to make the podium and are looking for the Championship. They are led by juniors-to-be Michael Teran (2nd at SS finals last year), Brittan Reed and Devon Reed. All 3 have run 9:42 or better this season in the 3200 as sophomores. Jurupa Hills also returns 3 others under 16:30 and 2 more under 17:00 to perhaps have the best depth in the division.
    3) St. John Bosco – After finishing 2nd and 1st in the last 2 years, SJB looks to continue its time on the podium. They return 2 runners under 15:50 and then 2 more under 16:10 with their fifth returner at 16:35. It is not too much of a stretch to seen this squad return to the top spot once Coach McIntosh gets his boys running. They almost always get an impact freshman or two and definitely have championship experience.
    4) Palos Verdes – The Southern Section champions from 2012 return 4 runners from last year’s team. Celestin, Irish and Robinson are all under 15:50 but the times fall off from there. Finding that 4th and 5th scorer will determine the fate of this group. Coach Brian Shapiro does a great job of developing the next generation and will find a way to have a couple of boys step up to compete at the necessary level.
    5) San Marcos – This squad made the SS finals last year, finishing only 27 points out of advancing to the State Championship. They return 2 under 16:00 (Ryan Sorensen, 15:47, and Eric Salas, 15:57) plus 3 more at 16:46 or better. This will be a senior heavy team that is looking to go out with a trip to Fresno.
    6) Cathedral – Another team in the group of 5 that missed the state meet by 50 points or less. With Ruiz (15:41), Neveraz (15:52) and Munoz (15:53) they return 3 under 16:00 but not another runner under 17:00. Finding quality back-up to support the front runners will be crucial in ensuring a trip to Fresno in late November.
    7) Bonita – After advancing to Sectional Finals last year Bonita will be looking for more in 2013. They return all 7 athletes from the Finals team with 1 under 16:00 (Nobbs, 15:34) and 5 more under 17:00! There is a large gap between Nobbs and the #2 (15:34 – 16:30) but the depth is there to keep them in the hunt for a berth to State.
    8) Oak Park – A very consistent program that went to the State Championships last season. Led by Sahm Bazargan at 15:20, the team returns only 3 from the squad that finished 4th in Fresno. Three more runners are under 17:00 but none of them are under 16:30. They group will need to step up and find some back end scorers to return to Fresno but Bazargan will be one of the early favorites for an individual title.
    9) Paso Robles – The team loses 4 of the top 6 that ran at State last year but the team is not empty. Two runners are under 16:05 with a third under 16:30, however, they will need to find another 2 scorers to remain a ranked team. Another shot at Finals is certainly possible but significant improvements from the back-end scorers will be necessary to get the Fresno again.
    10) San Luis Obisbo – After missing a spot at Finals last season by one place, they will be hungry to make the next step. Nobody returns under 16:10 but there are 3 under 16:50. As is the case with the 2 in front of them , this squad needs to sure up its #4 and #5 to stay ahead of the pack chasing the top 10.
    Last edited by Keith Chann; 04-30-2013 at 10:12 AM. Reason: Editing
    Keith Chann
    Chemistry teacher
    XC Fan
    Rubidoux High School

  3. #3
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    Rene,

    I still think mine were more accurate...

    Doug
    ----------------------------
    Doug Soles
    Head XC & Track Coach
    Great Oak High School

  4. #4
    Awesome stuff. Will be adding these with a mainpage link this week and add to them as time goes along from there.

    Thanks Rene, Keith and Doug!

    Rich
    "Cross-country is an individual sport. Succeeding in cross-country is a team sport!"

  5. #5
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    Looking at how I did with last year's rankings:
    1) St John Bosco – finished as State Champion
    2) Palos Verdes – Finished 2nd at State after winning SS Championship
    3) Buena Park – missed SS Finals but had #1 runner transfer out.
    4) West Torrance – Moved to Div 2
    5) South Pasadena – missed SS Finals by 1 spot
    6) Paso Robles – Finished 5th in SS and 10th at State
    7) Oak Park – Finished 4th at State and 7th at SS Finals
    8) Cathedral – Finiished 9th at SS Finals
    9) Laguna Hills – Finished 11th at SS Finals
    10) Brea Olinda – Finished 3rd at State and 2nd at SS Finals. Had super frosh join the team.

    Definitely some misses there. A few were accurate but some major oversights. Most notably Jurupa Hills comes from nowhere to make State and finish 5th! In my own league and I completely missed that one.
    Keith Chann
    Chemistry teacher
    XC Fan
    Rubidoux High School

  6. #6
    Rene,
    There's a team called Saugus that you may want to consider editing into your rankings. They have won one or two consecutive State titles. I don't think they have experienced a coaching change, so I'm sure they will be decent in the fall. Look them up. You'll be impressed.
    Last edited by Jeremy Mattern; 04-30-2013 at 09:15 PM.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Mattern View Post
    Rene,
    There's a team called Saugus that you may want to consider editing into your rankings. They have won one or two consecutive State titles. I don't they have experienced a coaching change, so I'm sure they will be decent in the fall. Look them up. You'll be impressed.
    LOL. Great post!
    "Cross-country is an individual sport. Succeeding in cross-country is a team sport!"

  8. #8
    Keith,
    Thanks for the thoughtful analysis. Great stuff! I would put SJB and PV ahead of us, as both have strong returners and a tradition of success at Woodward. Jurupa Hills should be hungry for a podium finish. As your last post made clear, one runner can make a major impact on a program, and that whole summer training thing seems to always sway the rankings.

  9. #9
    isn't it still track season?

    jeremy, shouldn't you be scouring century league heat sheets or looking for garret corcoran's "kryptonite?"

    rene, don't you have twins to tend to? must be sleep deprivation that had him overlook saugus. or maybe they're moving to d3???

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by cush View Post
    or maybe they're moving to d3???
    Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!
    Keith Chann
    Chemistry teacher
    XC Fan
    Rubidoux High School

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