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Thread: 2014 Cross Country first look

  1. #1
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    2014 Cross Country first look

    With the majority of the track season over and many distance coaches beginning to look to the XC season, it is time to revisit the top returning teams for the 2014 XC campaign.

    Great Oak has jumped to the front of the pack with their strong returners and outstanding track times. Nick Doan will lead the way after running 15:05 at Mt. SAC and having an incredible track season (1:55/4:15/9:05), but he is not alone. GO has at least 8 runners who have broken 10:00 in the 3200, including 4 (Doan, Robinson, Cortes and Gleason) at 9:30 or better. Those 4 plus Cole Spencer all ran better than 15:50 last year giving Great Oak the edge as the (my) pre-season state number 1.

    Madera South returns 5 guys that were under 16:20 at Woodward Park last season with 3 of them (Herrera, Villar and Macias) being under 15:50! Their track times have been solid but not spectacular, except for Herrera who has run 9:07. Madera South has 4 under 9:50 and 2 more under 10:20. They are a solid #2 pre-season.


    Warren blasted to an incredible performance last year in winning the Southern Section Division 1 Championship but could not repeat that performance a week later in Fresno. They return 3 runners at 16:00 or better from Woodward park with another at 16:18. They have the best returning top 3 of any team in the State with Gonzalez (14:45 at Mt. SAC), Rodriguez (15:01) and Barragan (15:14). These 3 have run 9:31 or better in the 3200 this spring and Warren has 2 more under 10:00 to give them serious back-up power as they look to repeat in the South and take the top step in Fresno.

    Jurupa Hills pulled off the shocker last year in winning the D3 State Championship mainly on the back of 4 outstanding juniors. This year those juniors will need a little help to repeat but are certainly capable. They had 4 runners at or under 16:03 in the State meet. This spring Jurupa Hills has 4 of its returning XC runners under 9:50. If a 5th runner can join this party, they may challenge the top 3 teams.

    Many other top teams looking to be in the top 5-10 spots including: Brea Olinda, Saugus, Bellarmine Prep, Rubidoux and Davis Senior, Canyon (Anaheim), Tesoro, El Modena.

    State your case ...
    Keith Chann
    Chemistry teacher
    XC Fan
    Rubidoux High School

  2. #2
    I won't predict the future. If the race were held this weekend I think these would be your top two teams when looking at 9-11th graders. GO could absorb injuries better than BO due to their depth, which is very helpful during a long season of racing.


    GO
    Doan - 9:05
    Robinson - 9:25
    Cortes - 4:21
    Fountain - 4:24
    Gleeson - 9:30


    BO
    Tamagno - 4:06
    Shellito - 4:18
    Escobar - 4:26
    Sipple - 4:29
    Orellana - 4:30

  3. #3
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    Warren returns runners with Mt. SAC times of 14:45, 15:01, 15:14, 15:50 and 16:07. Those runners have run 3200m times of 9:22, 9:31, 9:25, 9:53 and the 16:07 runner only has a 1600m time that I could find (4:53). Brea returns runners with Mt. SAC times of 14:34, 15:24, 15:27, 16:03 and 16:17. Those runners have track times of 8:56, 9:51, 4:18, no time found and 9:45. While Brea does show more speed with mile times, Warren returns superior cross country times and shows better track times with respect to the 3200m, which is more indicative of cross country success.

    The difference between 14:34 and 14:45 may seem significant but in reality it is probably only 3-5 points in scoring a cross country meet. With Warren having 3 runners before the 2nd from Brea and with Brea having 2 runners over 16 minutes, there are considerable point differences there. In a championship style race, every second over 16 minutes is usually at least 1 point. This trends toward a large advantage for Warren over Brea.

    Is Brea Olinda still a major force in the top level of California cross country? Without a doubt. However, in my humble opinion at this time, they would be 4th or 5th at best. I chose Jurupa Hills as my #4 team simply because the two are very even but Jurupa Hills beat Brea last year and return their 4 outstanding seniors-to-be while Brea lost a couple from their awesome team last year.

    [yes I know I am waaayyy to into this already and I am seeking help with my affliction!!]
    Keith Chann
    Chemistry teacher
    XC Fan
    Rubidoux High School

  4. #4
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    My pre-preseason top 10 based on 2013 XC results, projected returners, 2014 track times, absolute lack of common sense, a little prognostication, coaching acumen, and the post-it notes on my desk:

    1) Great Oak
    2) Madera South
    3) Warren
    4) Brea Olinda
    5) Jurupa Hills*
    6) Belarmine Prep
    7) Rubidoux
    8) Canyon (Anaheim)
    9) Saugus
    10) Davis Sr.

    This does not include transfers or some of those absolute stud young men moving into the high school ranks next season! (Melecio Gonzalez, Erik Hatch, Raymon Ornelas, John Dempsy and others)
    Keith Chann
    Chemistry teacher
    XC Fan
    Rubidoux High School

  5. #5
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    Dana Hills? Gotta be top 5 with Ogden and Coppi alone...

    Loyola? Anyone know if they will be D1 or D2 next year? Always an amazing team.

    Doug
    ----------------------------
    Doug Soles
    Head XC & Track Coach
    Great Oak High School

  6. #6
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    Dana Hills? Gotta be top 5 with Ogden and Coppi alone...

    Loyola? Anyone know if they will be D1 or D2 next year? Always an amazing team.
    Dana Hills has a very good 1-3 when you add in Smith (14:41, 15:11, 15:30 Mt. SAC times) but fall off precipitously after that (16:24, 16:35, 16:56). They certainly have a history of producing quality runners but currently need some help to be in the top 5. Incoming freshmen?

    Loyola also lacks depth (14:42, 15:45, 16:12, 16:48, 16:50) returning. Again their history says that they will be in the mix at the end but also need some help. They almost always get at least 1 impact freshmen.
    Keith Chann
    Chemistry teacher
    XC Fan
    Rubidoux High School

  7. #7
    Dana Hills will be there. Their 4-5-6 runners are right around 10:00 in the 3200 and are composed of 2 sophs and a frosh. Coppi will be phenomenal next season. He's got all the tools. So, at almost any meet it's going to be the score of their 3-4-5 runners + 3-10 points at most.

  8. #8
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    Has anyone taken a look at Ventura? Maybe they can break this list

    Reynolds 10 15:29 mt sac/9:19/4:22
    Askar 11 15:46 mt sac/9:21/4:22
    Mountcastle 11 16:01 mt sac/???/4:26
    Cruz 10 16:02 mt sac/9:39
    Olson 9 16:58 mt sac/9:50/4:33
    Rodriguez 10 16:13 mt sac/10:04
    Last edited by eddierod; 05-28-2014 at 06:26 PM.
    Eddie Rodriguez
    Warren High School
    XC & Track Boys Distance

  9. #9
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    Has anyone taken a look at Ventura? Maybe they can break this list
    Dana Hills and Ventura should certainly be in the conversation for top 10. The last 2 in and the first 2 out are all very close together. I put more weight on cross country times unless the track times are remarkable improvements, my personal bias. Dana Hills certainly has an advantage when you look at 1-3 since they return 14:41, 15:11 and 15:30 Mt. SAC times. Saugus has 14:58, 15:22 and 15:33 making them a clear second best through 3 runners. The real scoring issue is in runners toward the middle of the races, those in the 15:45- 16:20 range. In D1 SS-Finals there were 37 runners in that time gap, for D2 it was 43 runners and in D3 it was 33 runners. Dana Hills’ next returning runner is at 16:24 while Saugus has a 16:10. The difference between a 14:41 and a 14:58 would normally be 5 points at most while the difference between 16:10 and 16:24 could be 20! Certainly the case could, and should, be made for Ventura and Dana Hills but I saw Saugus, with 5 runners under 10:00 in the 3200, just slightly ahead of Dana Hills with only 3 under 10:00.
    Ventura cannot match the top 3 of either school having only 15:29, 15:46 and 16:01 as returners. However, they do put 5 runners under 16:15 and they do have 5 runners at 9:50 or better for the 3200. Can the better back-end scoring of Ventura overcome the front-end scoring of both Saugus and Dana Hills? I am not so sure about that, but it is a very close match.

    Because Davis Sr. is not in the Southern Section and does not run Mt. SAC, it is not as easy to compare them. Perhaps they should be behind Ventura and Dana Hills; that is probably true. I think I was just looking for another non-SS school to round out the top 10. On 3rd evaluation they should probably be 12th.

    I do love the debates. There are so many coaches out there that have great insight and information, I really just wanted to get the conversations started.
    Keith Chann
    Chemistry teacher
    XC Fan
    Rubidoux High School

  10. #10
    Pissed off..... are you kidding me?!?!?! How do you NOT have Corona in your Top 5?!!!!!

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